A research report confirms that China’s anti-dumping duties have seriously disrupted the Australia’s wine trade, ranging from 116 to 218% and will cause China’s imports of bottled wine from Australia to cease entirely.
The report investigated the short- to medium-term consequences of China’s punitive anti-dumping measures on Australian wine exports and found that only 60% of wine destined for China will find a place in our other existing markets by 2025, unless we make the effort to find alternative markets or do things differently.
While Australia exports wine to over 100 countries, the Chinese market was the largest in both export and volume for bottled wine, accounting for 40% of export value share and 24% of export volume share.
Without growing existing markets or finding new ones, the export value of Australian wine in 2025 is expected to be $480 million lower. The total cost of the anti-dumping measures could be at least $2.4 billion over a five-year period.
For wine grape growers, the loss of production would be $67 million annually. This represents annual losses of $11 million in the Riverina, $11 million for the Victoria-North West region, $23 million for South Australia-South East region, and $21 million for growers everywhere else.
This isn’t to spell doom and gloom; it’s an outcome that can be avoided if we look at finding other markets for Australian wine or find ways to generate more value from our wine sold into existing markets.
The Australian wine industry is resilient, and industry bodies and businesses have already had success in diverting to other markets.
Since the beginning of 2021, Australian wine exporters have managed to redirect around 30% of the wine destined for China. The search for new markets is well on its way.