China commodity trade data shows a manufacturing recovery for 2020

ANZ Research has revealed how China’s commodity imports continue to reflect the ongoing recovery in industrial activity, with volumes remaining robust. 

The report observed China’s commitment to purchase more US goods, especially to keep LNG and soybeans imports strong.

Ample fiscal supports and steady economic recovery should support bulks and metals shipments, though a seasonal deceleration cannot be ruled out.

Crude oil

Imports normalised following a strong pick-up in September. Nevertheless, at 42.6mt, volumes remain healthy.

Elevated inventories and diminishing import quotas for some of the independent refiners were the driver behind the weaker volumes.

Easing port congestion and weaker oil prices should see this trend reversing in the coming months.

Copper

Refinedcopperimports grew 43% year on year to 618kt, though levelled-off from September imports of 722kt.

While concentrate imports fell both month on month and year on year amid tighter availability.

Reports of unofficial ban of Australian concentrate imports could see a temporary fall in imports in November.

Iron ore

Imports stayed above 105mt, amid strong volumes from Brazil.

Although the relaxation of winter curbs should keep demand from steel mills strong, this may be tempered by elevated inventories.

Coal shipments continued to be crimped by Chinese restrictions on seaborne coal imports.

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