The early tally shows that nationally 5.7 million tonnes of grain had been delivered to the main bulk handlers from the winter crop harvest of 2024-25
Harvest of the 2024-25 crop is well underway with Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia leading the charge.
Before the harvest commenced, early industry estimates placed the nationwide crop at 55.2 million tonnes, a range 17% above the 10-year average result and a seasonal money spinner for growers.
The Northern New South Wales and Queensland harvests are in their final stages, and the early pace is at record levels for these two states. A total of 3.4 million tonnes has already been delivered to GrainCorp sites.
This beats the previous benchmark of 1.8 million tonnes for this time of the harvest, that was gathered in the 2012-13 winter season.
Western Australian growers also had a good run at harvest in the first week of November. They delivered 1.5 million tonnes to CBH sites. So far, the season’s total for WA is 2.1 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, the harvest across Victoria and South Australia is off to a slow start with grower deliveries at 200,000 tonnes, down from 1.6 million last year.
On a national level, 5.7 million tonnes of grain had been delivered into the main bulk handlers for the week ending 5th of November. For the corresponding time last year, 6.3 million tonnes had been delivered.
A recent industry crop tour in Victoria and southern New South Wales, plus early harvest results, suggest that September frosts caused less damage than feared.
As the harvest advances in dry impacted regions of South Australia over the next few weeks, the full extent of this damage will become more apparent.
The production outlook from industry watchers suggests outlooks are unchanged at this stage with the final tally expected to reveal. wheat at 30.3 million tonnes, barley at 11.1 million tonnes, and canola at 5.4 million tonnes.
Mostly fine conditions to date have seen no quality issues arise with wheat grades ranging from ASW through to APH2.
Barley is probably the most harvested commodity to date and is showing variable quality. A good proportion is said to be making malt grades in New South Wales.
For Western Australia, malt conversion has improved but is still below average at around 10%.
Meanwhile, Canola yields are coming in mixed across the country with some growers happy and others reporting it ‘as expected’.
Price expectations
Wheat prices have been mixed over the past month. Markets in Queensland and northern New South Wales firmed slightly as peak harvest pressure eased.
In contrast, prices in Victoria and South Australia dropped by about 3%. These markets are in a holding pattern as they await clearer signs on yield and quality as harvest activity intensifies.
Western Australia saw the largest gains, with prices up 5%, supported by significantly higher trading volumes in canola and barley.
Canola prices remain the standout rising by around 10% over the month to reach decile 9 levels, with strong selling by growers at these levels.
As the 2024-25 winter harvest progresses, there will need to be good offshore prices to support our exports.
Barley prices were flat to slightly higher over the month. There is some emerging export interest for barley, however, merchants have had no trouble filling requirements so they have not had to push bids up.
Malt premiums are firming slightly and range from $20 to $35 dollars per tonne across port zones. This will be one to watch as harvest progresses, and quality becomes clearer.
Export quantities high
While there is still a considerable way to go before harvest is complete, markets are gradually recognizing that most regions are likely to have an exportable surplus of wheat, which will eventually need to be priced.
The direction of prices will depend on local quality, global demand, and Black Sea supplies in early 2025. There is a view that Black Sea supplies will tighten, leading to continued appreciation of global values.
Additionally, any further crop damage events in the northern hemisphere could create further marketing opportunities in the coming months.
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