Follow the money trail as many grain growers and livestock producers will get their second biggest farmgate income on record from season 2024-25
Early on in the 2024-25 winter season, there was concern in some regions as drier than expected conditions prevailed, and while that has unfortunately affected some regions in South Australia, the majority of farmers have persevered to be rewarded with their second-highest value of production on record.
Expressed as a dollar value, the agriculture sector is worth $88.4 billion in season 2024-25, up $2 billion over last year. When the fisheries and forestry sectors are added to agriculture, the total forecast income from the rural sectors is $94.3 billion.
The chief drivers of the increase in farmgate value are the higher prices being gained for livestock at an expected farmgate value of $39.8 billion and the gross value of a winter crop harvest that is forecast to be worth $49.8 billion, $2.2 billion more than last year. With domestic production expected to more than offset any lower prices on global markets.
Winter crop production volumes have risen by 16% to a total of 55.1 million tonnes, mainly due to favourable growing conditions across most regions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
In contrast, dry conditions impacted growers heavily in South Australia, and to a lesser extent in Victoria. Both states suffered from poor conditions throughout the winter cropping season, leading to year-on-year declines.
Agricultural export values are forecast to fall slightly to $70.1 billion in season 2024-25, on the back of the exportable crops returning to more normal levels following three record production years between 2020-21 and 2022-23, but it will still be third highest exports on record.
Part of the good performance is extended to red meat exports, that already rose significantly in 2023-24 and are expected to reach new record levels in 2024-25, due to strong demand from key trading partners such as the US, China, Japan and the Middle East.
If the availability of livestock for turn-off by local producers continues, the 2024-25 red meat export value could reach record levels for both beef and veal exports, worth $13.9 billion, and sheep meat exports of $5.3 billion.
Winter crop value 2024-25
The gross value of crop productionis forecast to increase by $2.2 billion to $49.8 billion in 2024-25, mostly driven by higher crop production volumes. This is 12% above the 10-year average to 2023-24 in real terms.
Improved production conditions across much of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia in 2024-25 when compared to 2023-24 are supporting higher winter crop production overall. This is in contrast to drier than expected conditions that have weighed on winter crop production in parts of south-eastern Australia.
The expected higher value of crop production in 2024-25 when compared to 2023-24 reflects higher overall values across grains, pulsesand horticulture.These increases are expected to more than offset lower values across oilseedsand industrial crops, with significant variation by each commodity.
• _Wheat values are forecast to rise by $1.0 billion to $10.7 billion in 2024-25, driven by higher production despite easing prices.
• _Pulses, horticulture and wine grape values are forecast to rise by 38% to $3.7 billion, by 5% to $17.9 billion, and by 11% to $970 million respectively in 2024-25. These increases reflect higher expected prices and production. Among pulses, chickpea values are expected to reach a record high in 2024-25, up by $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion.
• _Barley values are forecast to remain unchanged at $3.6 billion in 2024-25 as higher production offsets easing prices.
• _Sorghum production values are forecast to fall to $820 million, driven by easing prices. Forecast falls for sugar cane values, down by 13% to $2.0 billion, also reflect easing prices.
• _Canola values are expected to fall by 2% to $4.0 billion, reflecting lower production despite rising prices.
• _Cotton values are expected to fall by 13% to $2.7 billion, driven by falling production and prices.
Livestock production value 2024-25
The gross value of productionfor livestock and livestock products is forecast to rise to $38.6 billion in 2024-25, up by 11% from an estimated $34.8 billion in 2023-24. This reflects both higher prices and production levels across most livestock and livestock product categories.
Climatic conditions improved in 2024-25 as compared to 2023-24, and production is forecast to be above the historical average across much of the country.
The forecast rise in production value for the livestock sector is being driven by beef, veal and live cattle up by 23% to $16.9 billion, sheep meat and live sheep up by 22% to $5.3 billion, and pig and poultry meat and eggs up by 5% to $7.4 billion.
By contrast, milk is down by 12% to $5.5 billion and wool is down by 3% to $2.7 billion with values forecast to fall, slightly offsetting the overall rise in livestock production values.
The forecast value of livestock and livestock product production for 2024-25 is $920 million higher than at the start of the season, reflecting an upward trend in beef and mutton production as well as an upward revision to lamb saleyard prices.
The value of livestock and livestock product exportsis forecast to rise to $31.4 billion in 2024-25, up by 7% from $29.4 billion in 2023-24. Higher forecast export values for most livestock and livestock products reflect both higher export prices and volumes.
The forecast rises in export values in 2024-25 is driven by beef, veal and live cattle exports up by 13% to $14.9 billion, sheep meat and live sheep exports up by 11% to $5.3 billion, dairy product export values up by 2% to $3.4 billion, and pork and poultry export values up by 9% to $373 million.
By contrast, wool export values are forecast to fall, down 9% to $2.8 billion.
