Rural sector farm operations combined with fish and forestry sectors expected to break through the $100 billion income barrier
The combined income from agriculture, fisheries and forestry production is expected to hit a record value of $101.6 billion in season 2025-26 according to industry forecasts released today.
And while all rural sectors are playing their part, the record jump is mostly down to the high prices being achieved for both livestock and animal products, including beef, lamb and milk.
It is expected the value of livestock production will reach a record $41.6 billion, and this is driving the overall agriculture sector production value including crops and dairy, to a forecasted $94.7 billion, a new farmgate combined record.
And the most bizarre point of this forecast record result, is while crop revenue is strong, it is not at a record production level, and in fact is only the third largest winter crop on record, down slightly on last year.
Wheat production and value have had to endure a dry start to the season with both global prices and yields declining slightly from last year, even though wheat production is still ticking along at 22% above the 10-year average.
Combined with a strong result for other crops such as barley, stable canola production and with pulse production on the rise, growers are forecast to produce the third largest winter crop on record.
This current crop forecast is an improvement over previous industry estimates and that is mainly due to later seasonal rainfall over July in many growing regions of South Australia and Victoria where crops were previously expected to fail.
The revised forecast confirms that Western Australia growers are in the box seat with the benefit of above average rainfall, and as a result in an overall good position heading into spring.
Fingers are however still crossed for growers in Southern New South Wales where a slow start to the winter cropping season, due to relatively low soil moisture levels, hindered crop plantings and subsequent early growth.
Further good news from the season is that it’s expected there will be plenty left in the tank for export markets, tipped at this stage to bring in $74.6 billion, the third-highest value on record.
Exports will be led by the current rising star sector horticulture, and wheat exports will also rise as a result of high carry over from the 2024-25 season. While beef and sheep meat exports are expected to fall slightly due to strong local demand.
Livestock herd produce and value
Livestock and livestock product values are forecast to rise by $1.1 billion above previous forecasts to reach $41.6 billion in season 2025-26 mainly due to higher prices being driven by strong global demand for meat and domestic restocking.
By commodity segment the main drivers of change in total livestock and livestock product values for season 2025-26 are as follows:
Cattle is expected to reach a gross value of a record $18.9 billion for processed and live exports, a rise of 1% in 2025–26.
Included in this result is a Saleyard Indicator Priceforecast to increase by 11% to average 675 cents per kilogram (carcase weight). Although daily saleyard prices in August 2025 nearly reached 800 cents (carcase weight), the annual-average forecast of 675 cents accounts for expected market volatility over the remainder of season 2025-26.
The beef cattle herdis forecast to remain relatively steady in 2025-26 (down 0.2%) at 27.9 million head on 30 June, 3% above the 10-year average
Lamb and sheep processing and live sheep exports is expected to rise by 8% to $6.2 billion in 2025-26. Rising production value is a result of higher prices, that are offsetting a fall in total sheep meat production.
Prices are forecast to rise as processors and restockers compete for stock and as a result of robust world demand for sheep meat that is expected to remain relatively strong in 2025-26.
Production volumes are forecast to fall as improving seasonal conditions have producers looking to rebuild flocks after prolonged drought in southern Australian sheep producing areas, and flood conditions in parts of Queensland.
Milk production is forecast to rise by 7% to $5.8 billion in season 2025-26 from an estimated $5.4 billion in 2024-25. This forecast increase in production value is driven by a higher farmgate milk price outweighing an expected decrease in milk production.
Farmgate milk prices are forecast to rise to 70.5 cents/litre, up by 8% from 2024-25 to be just below the 5-year average in real terms. Prices are expected to rise as milk supply tightens, reflecting a decline in domestic milk production while domestic demand for market milk is expected to remain stable.
Pig and poultry slaughtering gross value is forecast to remain elevated and reach a record high of $6.3 billion in 2025–26, supported by rising domestic production. Rising domestic production of pig and poultry meat is being supported by increased domestic demand, which in turn is being driven by a combination of population growth and consumer substitution towards pig and poultry meat given relatively higher prices for beef and sheep meat (see Economic outlook).
Pig meat processing is forecast to rise to a record $2.1 billion in 2025-26, up by 5% from the $2.0 billion recorded in 2024-25, a result of increased production and higher prices.
Ongoing consumer demand for fresh pork is expected to remain strong in 2025-26, and demand from cured meat and smallgoods is expected to rise, with higher import prices driving increased competition for locally produced pork.
Poultry meat processing is forecast to rise to a record $4.2 billion in 2025-26, up by 2% from $4.1 billion in 2024-25, due to increased slaughter numbers and higher average weight per bird.
Easing feed grain prices are expected to lower feed costs and support increased production in 2025-26, with the average unit value of poultry slaughtering expected to fall, partially offsetting the effects of increased production volume on industry value.
Egg production is forecast to increase by 0.6% to $1.4 billion in 2025-26 driven by higher production, which is expected to outweigh an anticipated decline in egg prices, following the Avian influenza price hike, with further disease threat officially ended on 13 June 2025.
Following this successful eradication, the volume of egg production is forecast to increase by 7% in 2025-26 compared to 2024-25. With egg prices expected to fall by 6% on average due to the increase in availability of eggs and lower feed grain prices.
There are some market segment exemptions where farmers have not been graced with increased income.
Wool production is forecast to fall by 7% to $2.4 billion in 2025-26, from an estimated $2.6 billion in 2024-25, reflecting both lower wool prices and lower production,
Shorn wool production is expected to fall with a decline in the number of sheep shorn, more than offsetting higher wool yields. Other wool production (fellmongered and wool exported on skins) is also expected to fall in 2025-26 as sheep turnoff and slaughter eases from high levels in 2024–25. Lower prices largely reflect ongoing weakness in global wool demand.
The value of wool production by the Eastern Market Indicator is for an expected fall of 1% to 1,151 cents per kilogram in 2025-26.
Crop production produce and value
Total crop production value is forecast to fall by $0.4 billion to $53.1 billion in 2025-26, as lower prices offset marginally higher production volumes.
And while declining somewhat from 2024-25, if the forecast value of crop production is realised, it would be the third highest on record.
Favourable seasonal conditions in winter, combined with a positive spring outlook, will support strong production volumes.
Meanwhile crop prices are also forecast to decline slightly in 2025-26, falling by 2% overall. Grains and industrial crops are expected to drive the overall fall in crop prices, with several crop segments down due to robust global production and an increase in global stocks.
Lower prices across broadacre are being partially offset by expected price rises across key horticultural produce, that’s on the rise.
By commodity segment the main drivers of lower overall crop production value for season 2025-26 are as follows:
Wheat production in 2025-26 is virtually in line with last year with a minor forecasted fall of 1% to just under 34 million tonnes, still a worthy 22% above the 10–year average to 2024-25.
This minor production estimate has been bought about due to a 3% reduction in area planted, estimated at 12.7 million hectares, as a result of the dry and sporadic start in some major cropping regions.
The gross value of wheat production is forecast to fall by 4% to $11 billion in 2025-26, still estimated to be the fourth highest value on record for the crop segment. Driven by easing global wheat prices.
Coarse grain prices overall are forecast to fall in 2025-26, reflecting a forecast increase in both domestic and global supply. Record global corn production is expected to place downward pressure on the prices of all coarse grains, including barley.
Domestic feed demand is expected to be slightly lower in 2025-26 due to improved seasonal conditions across southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, although cattle on feed numbers are expected to remain at record levels.
Barley production is forecast to increase by 10% to 14.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, approximately 23% above the 10–year average, with crop value forecast to increase by 7% to $4.4 billion, reflecting higher levels of domestic production, that are forecast to be partially offset by lower barley prices.
Sorghum production is forecast to be down by 9% to 2.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, with a total crop value estimated to fall 11% to $862 million, with an expected increase in production offset by lower prices.
Canola production is forecast to increase marginally to 6.4 million tonnes, which is 34% above the 10-year average to 2024-25, despite a relatively dry start to the production season hampered by an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.
Overall, the 2025-26 growing season for canola is generally expected to be average with a forecast marginal rise of crop value to $5.2 billion, helped along by demand-driven price increases that are expected to contribute to an overall increase in the production value.
Horticulture production is value is forecast to reach a record $19.2 billion in season 2025-26, up by 4%, from the previous record of $18.4 billion in 2024-25.
The increase in production value is forecast to be driven by both rising production volumes and higher export prices for export-focused commodities. However, low farmgate prices for other commodities are expected to slightly offset the overall horticulture production value.
Fruit and nut yields are expected to improve due to an improved rainfall outlook across many of the growing regions.
In particular, yields for tree nut varieties are expected to improve to the relief of growers who experienced a challenging season in 2024-25.
In addition, the increased growth in horticulture produce is due to previous years plantings that are now beginning to enter commercial production, increasing capacity.
Cotton production in value is forecast to fall by 18% to $2.5 billion in 2025-26, from an estimated $3.1 billion in 2024-25, driven by lower prices and lower production.
Lower prices reflect global supply rising faster than demand. While lower local production is expected to be driven by reduced water availability in key production regions.
Final farmgate prices for livestock and cropping segments from season 2025-26 will still need to overcome the vagaries of many uncertain world market conditions, but at least we will have product available for an estimated $74.6 billion, the third-highest export value on record.
