Industry experts are contemplating whether dairy prices will rise further in the second half of 2025 or stumble under fragile demand
Global dairy commodity prices have continued to climb in most key exporting countries in recent months, defying expectations and economic headwinds.
But according to Rabobank in a newly-released report, it indicates ‘downside’ risks are expected to emerge in the second half of the year.
In its Quarter 2 Global Dairy Quarterly, titled ‘Too Good to Be True?’, the agribusiness banking specialist bank’s RaboResearch division says an only modest level of growth seen in global dairy production in the first few months of 2025 has underpinned firm dairy commodity prices.
“RaboResearch estimates that output from the Big-7 dairy exporting regions (New Zealand, Australia, the EU, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and the US) expanded by just 0.5% year-on-year (YOY) in Q1 – a modest increase that aligns with the recent price strength,” report co-author, RaboResearch senior dairy analyst Michael Harvey said.
“However, the outlook is shifting. Production growth is projected at 1.1% in Q2 and 1.4% in Q3, marking the strongest quarterly increase since Q1 2021. Both the US and EU are expected to contribute to this growth, with additional support from South America – granted against weak prior-year comparisons.”
On the global dairy demand side, the report says, signs of stress are emerging, with “several concerning factors evident”.
“These include near record-low consumer confidence in the United States, troubling indicators of economic struggles in China and declining sales data from restaurants and consumer packaged goods companies across many regions,” Michael Harvey adds.
Amid these dynamics, the report says, global trade conflicts remain elevated, with volatility and rapidly-changing tariffs – factors that are influencing global dairy trade flows.
Nevertheless, dairy commodity prices, particularly in Oceania, have surged to multi-year highs, it says.
“Recent trends at the Global Dairy Trade auction have been predominantly positive,” Mr Harvey said.
“Even in the US, most dairy commodities have shown bullish trends into late May, supported by mixed-to-lower stock levels and strong exports throughout Q1 – prior to the implementation of retaliatory tariffs by key trading partners China and Canada.”
But, as “we move towards the mid-point of 2025”, the report says, “the question remains: is it too good to be true?” when it comes to global dairy commodity prices.
“In RaboResearch’s view,” Michael Harvey ponders, “the answer is likely yes”.
“We anticipate downside risks emerging for global dairy commodity prices in the second half of the year, driven by expanding supply and demand uncertainty.
“However, rather than a sharp downturn, we expect a recalibration from recent multi-year highs – a natural correction following a period of strong performance,” Michael Harvey adds.
Outlook for Australia
For Australia, as the 2024-25 dairy season draws to a close, several dairy companies operating in the southern export sector have announced increases in farmgate milk prices, the report notes.
“This is welcome news for milk suppliers,” Michael Harvey said. Benchmark average prices have reached approximately AUD 8.40/kgMS.
“The higher farmgate prices come on the back of firmer ingredient and export returns.
Formal minimum prices for the 2025-26 season across southern Australia are around 9.00/kgMS, broadly in line with RaboResearch forecasts, Michael Harvey adds.
The report indicated Australian milk production is under pressure in several key regions, due to challenging seasonal conditions.
“National milk output for the 2024-25 season is slightly down, with production from July 2024 to April 2025 totalling 7.129 billion litres, a 0.1 per cent decline year-on-year,” Michael Harvey explains.
“Dry conditions have seen significant volume declines in western Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, with combined production in those regions falling 4% in the 2024-25 season to April 2025, equating to 70 million litres. There has also been severe flooding in northern New South Wales, impacting a relatively small number of dairy farms.”
RaboResearch expects the 2025-26 local milk production to be marginally down on the previous season (by -0.4 per cent), with downside risk if seasonal conditions remain predominantly dry.
Michael Harvey indicated feed costs were another growing concern for dairy farmers, with fodder prices surging across southern Australia, driven by strong demand and depleted reserves.
On the trade front, the report says, Australian dairy exports from July 2024 to March 2025 were up 5.4% compared with that period the previous season. “Export volumes of milk powder, butter and cheese have rebounded strongly,” Michael Harvey adds.
Domestically, the Australian market continues to face headwinds, the report offers. “While interest rate cuts are expected to ease household budget pressures and mild deflation is evident in the dairy aisle, the foodservice sector remains sluggish. And soft consumer sentiment is also contributing to a trend of trading down,” Michael Harvey concludes.
