Rain and flooding caused untold damage in many parts as the ill-effects of a La Niña wet phase were in control but now at an end with the likely return of dryer conditions
While the overall recent national weather picture has averaged out as warmer and wetter there were some states that never received much rain at all, and this sets the scene for a confusing weather pattern ahead.
It’s simple enough to see what happened in 2022 by taking a look at the data provided by The Bureau at this link climate data for the full 2022 calendar year. It provides data that confirms 2022 was wetter and warmer than average for Australia overall.
The national mean temperature was 0.50°C warmer than the 1961–1990 average, making 2022 the equal 22nd warmest year on record since national temperature records began in 1910.
National rainfall was 25% above the 1961–1990 annual average making 2022 the ninth-wettest year on record.
Rainfall was very much above average for the south-eastern quarter of the mainland, where persistent rain saw significant flooding affecting large areas, multiple times during the year.
However, in contradiction, rainfall was below average for western Tasmania, much of the north of the Northern Territory, and the far southwest of Western Australia.
Water storage levels were high across much of Australia during 2022, although some storages were still low for parts of central coast Queensland, western Tasmania, south-east New South Wales and western Victoria.
Annual maximum temperatures were above average for most of northern Australia, Tasmania and parts of the west coast but below average for New South Wales, southern Queensland and parts of South Australia.
Annual minimum temperatures were above or very much above average for most of Australia.
The year was characterised by wetter-than-average conditions across much of eastern Australia. Climatologically, these conditions were consistent with the wet phase of natural climate variability for our region – namely La Niña, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole in winter and spring, and a persistently positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode from mid-autumn.
The 2022–23 La Niña has been the third in a row. It is only the fourth time three successive La Niña events in a row have been observed in the Bureau record since 1900 (with the others being 1954–57, 1973–76, and 1998–2001).
State of the Climate 2022 found Australia is experiencing climate change now, with impacts being felt by many communities and industry sectors.
How each State and territory fared
New South Wales (and the ACT)
NSW overall had 860.24mm rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the state, which is 54.7% above average.
It was the second-wettest year on record for NSW, after 1950 when there was 915.61mm rainfall.
The average temperature was 0.13°C warmer than the 1961–1990 average, while also being the coolest year for NSW overall since 1996.
Victoria
Victoria overall had 872.70mm rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the state, which is 31.6% above average.
It was the fifth-wettest year on record and the state’s highest rainfall since 1974.
The average temperature was 0.45°C warmer than the 1961–1990 average for Vic.
Queensland
Queensland overall had 774.27mm rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the state, which is 24.4% above average and the state’s highest rainfall since 2011.
The average temperature was 0.74°C warmer than the 1961–1990 annual average, while also being the coolest year for Qld overall since 2012.
South Australia
South Australia overall had 310.45mm rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the state, which is 38.7% above average and the state’s highest rainfall since 2016.
The average temperature was 0.15°C warmer than the 1961–1990 annual average, while also being the coolest year for SA overall since 2010.
Tasmania
Tasmania overall had 1,318.75mm rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the state, which is 2.9% below average.
2022 was Tasmania’s equal-tenth warmest year on record (equal with 2005).
The average temperature was 0.57°C warmer than the 1961–1990 annual average, while also being the warmest year for TAS overall since 2018.
Western Australia
Western Australia overall had 413.52mm of rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the state, which is 21% above average and the state’s highest rainfall since 2017.
The average temperature was 0.49°C warmer than the 1961–1990 average for WA.
Northern Territory
The Northern Territory overall had 595.31mm of rainfall in 2022, as an area average across the Territory, which is 9.2% above average.
The average temperature was 0.69°C warmer than the 1961–1990 average for the NT.
How El Niño could shape 2023
The crystal balls are out, and at least half of the weather conditions predictions for 2023 could be on the mark.
And while forward prediction temperatures are often for the country as a whole, it is more pertinent to look at your local situation more closely than the overall picture. As shown in 2022, growers in different geographical regions can experience many different outcomes.
And for 2023 throw into the mix a change-over from wet La Niña conditions to the likely dryer conditions that El Niño is expected to bring through its warm phase of the Southern Oscillation.
The Bureau is generally predicting the first quarter of 2023 will still be influenced by wet conditions, and then for some neutral calm as neither El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels nor La Niña will be in total control.
As for the experts being drawn to declare with certainty that El Niño conditions will rule our winter months, the Bureau is quick to point out how early summer forecasts
for the following winter are notorious for their lower levels of accuracy, when compared with predictions made in late summer.
So, it is too early to get the experts onto the El Niño bandwagon at this stage, but don’t be surprised to see that situation change as conditions become more pronounced.
What most forecasters do agree on at this stage of proceedings is that there appears to be a relative drying trend across the wet conditions associated with La Niña weakening.
Bookies will be able to take bets on a fourth wet condition La Niña in a row until the middle of the year as the line crossing into a dryer condition El Niño pattern will not be official until around June.
And while everyone can see weather patterns now have a mind of their own, it has been unusual to already have three wet condition La Niña’s in a row. Only three times has that occurred previously, a fourth would be a real record topper for the ages.
Moving away from our local resources, Northern hemisphere weather modellers such as the US Climate Prediction Centre have been a little bolder in suggesting a dryer condition El Niño pattern will most likely be the determiner from around March 2023.
If the weather pattern followed the predictions from the US Climate Prediction Centre we could expect the wet condition La Niña to be gone after the end of February 2023, with more neutral conditions to prevail until the dryer condition La Niña slips in and gives us its due notice by late winter.
And as we haven’t had El Niño in control for the past three years it might be a good time to look back at how it controlled our weather previously.
Typical El Niño dry weather pattern
If El Niño gets a grip, it will at first be noticed through winter and spring with lower rainfall and especially by farmers in the eastern and northern parts of the country.
And while El Niño does not always represent drought conditions, nine out of the 10 driest winters to spring periods on record have been shaped in El Niño years when severe droughts hit us in 1982, 1983, 1994, 2002, 2006 and 2015.
Any old-time farmers faced with a severe El Niño weather pattern would plan for at least a one-third loss of average rainfall and most usually reduce stock by the same level as well.
And while livestock producers have their own issues, they are impacted further by higher feed costs as grain growers often face far more severe frosts during El Niños and as a result, are faced with lower yields and pass on higher product prices.
A severe El Niño weather pattern will often draw a line in the sand from north to south at the Eyre peninsular in South Australia all the way to the east coast with warmer-than-average weather in the second half of the year. Follow predictions here.
Both farmers and livestock will notice increased surface heating and there will be little to no relief from vanished showers that will be instead replaced with worsening heat extremes.
Even in the cooler months, minimum temperatures are reduced even further during an El Niño, it can bring frost increases of up to 30% more than average and they can be devastating to both crops and pasture growth.
A severe El Niño drought was blamed for the devasting 1983 Ash Wednesday bushfires that claimed over 70 lives in Victoria and South Australia partly due to the intense drying of bush that once alight couldn’t be controlled by firefighters.
While we all need to be reminded of severe weather patterns such as those under El Niño control the upcoming season will still be filled with plenty of optimism as moisture levels are ideal for a record winter crop planting.
Crops plantings of 24.8 million hectares for the 2022-23 winter season were the third highest on record and have led to an expected near-record result of a 62 million tonnes harvest, still in progress so silo tallies have not been finalised.
Crop planting would have been higher for the 2022-23 winter season, but wet ground prevented many growers from sowing their full complement, whereas winter season 2023-24 could see plantings in excess of the current 25.3 million hectares record planted.
