At this time in 2023 with the distraction of the general public watching the running of the 163rd Melbourne Cup the Reserve Bank of Australia Board (RBA) took a swipe at lingering inflation by raising the base cash rate by 0.25% to a 12 year high of 4.35%.
It was the first meeting of the RBA under new Governor Michele Bullock, who could have just as easily avoided the rate rise and the undoubted backlash from struggling mortgage holders by laying off for another month.
But the new Governor stamped her authority to show she was all about business and possessed a far better understanding of what the economy required at that time in history.
The RBA was giving prospective homeowners a jolt to consider a change in their timing to buy not now, but later on when house prices dropped in price, as they would at some stage, and also to consider the damage that unsustainable spending coupled with inflation could wrath upon anyone stretching themselves financially to purchase a property.
And even though the rate rise at the time in 2023 could have spiralled many more borrowers into a panic attack with a $600,000 housing mortgage rising in repayments by an extra $1500 a month since rates started increasing in May 2022. It has taken 12 months up until now for many homeowners to get the message to back off paying exorbitant house prices.
At the time, inflation was running at 5.4% year/on/year, and fortunately, it was also the last time in this cycle that the RBA raised rates. For homeowners across the past 12 months, it has been a matter of holding on for dear life as inflation has fallen to 2.8% year/on/year with the hope for a rate reduction for borrowers, instead of a further rise.
Present day Tuesday 5 November
With the general public watching the running of the 164th Melbourne Cup, won by Rank outsider Knight’s Choice at odds of $101.00 the Reserve Bank of Australia Board (RBA) today kept the cash rate steady at 4.35%. As expected by most economists, and that’s a change in course for many of them who have been touting a rate cut over the past 12 months but who now realise a cut could still be from 6 to 12 months off unless the upcoming Federal election puts undue pressure on the RBA to act.
Handing down the reasoning behind its decision to hold rates steady today at a base rate of 4.35%, the bank’s board said underlying inflation remained too high and was not expected to return to the target range of 2 to 3 % until 2026.
The Board acknowledged inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance.
And while headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high according to the RBA.
The board reiterated its policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until it is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range. Confirming the board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
With headline inflation coming in at 2.8% aided by government energy bill rebates and within the RBA’s 2 to 3% target range, underlying inflation remains outside the RBA’s target zone at 3.5% adjusted.
And with bold optimism many economists are getting ahead of themselves again by predicting and calling for almost immediate falls, while all four big banks have tipped the RBA to start slashing rates in February 2025. Traders, meanwhile, have not been so optimistic to see a rate cut anytime soon and have not fully priced in a 25-basis point cut until June 2025 at the earliest.
And for the opinion that actually counts, we refer to the RBA comment that inflation may not be tamed before June 2026, allowing the Board to make a rate reduce.
What the Reserve bank had to say
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent.
Underlying inflation remains too high
Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. Headline inflation was 2.8 per cent over the year to the September quarter, down from 3.8 per cent over the year to the June quarter.
This was as expected due to declines in fuel and electricity prices in the September quarter.
But part of this decline reflects the temporary cost of living relief. Abstracting from these effects, underlying inflation (as represented by the trimmed mean) was 3.5 per cent over the year to the September quarter.
This was as forecast but is still some way from the 2.5 per cent midpoint of the inflation target. The forecasts published in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026.
The outlook remains highly uncertain
The forecasts published today are very similar to those published in August. The forecast path for underlying inflation reflects a judgement that aggregate demand remains above the economy’s supply capacity, evidenced by the persistence of underlying inflation, surveys of business conditions and ongoing strength in the labour market.
Growth in output has been weak. Past declines in real disposable incomes and the ongoing effect of restrictive financial conditions continue to weigh on household consumption, particularly discretionary consumption. However, growth in aggregate consumer demand, which includes spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists, has remained more resilient.
A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight, and while conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. Employment grew strongly over the three months to September, by an average of 0.4 per cent per month.
The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in September, up from the trough of 3.5 per cent in late 2022. But the participation rate remains at record highs, vacancies are still elevated and average hours worked have stabilised. At the same time, some cyclical measures of the labour market including youth unemployment and underemployment have recently declined.
Wage pressures have eased somewhat but labour productivity is still only at 2016 levels, despite the pick-up over the past year.
Taking account of recent data and the updated forecasts, the Board’s assessment is that policy is currently restrictive and working broadly as anticipated. But there are uncertainties. The central projection is for growth in household consumption to increase from the second half of this year as income growth picks up – and there is tentative evidence of an increase in spending in the September quarter.
But there is a risk that any pick-up is slower than expected, resulting in continued subdued output growth and a sharper deterioration in the labour market. More broadly, there are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy and how firms’ pricing decisions and wages will respond to the slow growth in the economy and weak productivity outcomes at a time of excess demand, and while conditions in the labour market remain tight.
There remains a high level of uncertainty about the outlook abroad. Most central banks have eased monetary policy as they become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably back towards their respective targets. They note, however, that they are removing only some restrictiveness and remain alert to risks on both sides, namely weaker labour markets and stronger inflation.
Public authorities in China have responded to the weak outlook for economic activity by implementing more expansionary policies, although the impact (and in some cases the specific details) of these measures remains to be seen. Geopolitical uncertainties remain pronounced.
Sustainably returning inflation to target is the priority
Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
While headline inflation has declined substantially and will remain lower for a time, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum, and it remains too high. The November SMP forecasts suggest that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range and approaching the midpoint. This reinforces the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out. Policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.
The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
