Crop income experts have joined with rebound predictions for livestock producers to form a surge in farm income for season 2024-25
Farmgate income is predicted to rebound in the 2024-25 season with experts from different segments suggesting Crops and Livestock will increase to $48.7 and $36.2 billion respectively. A total of $84.9 billion for the farm industry.
If these levels are achieved, it will be above the 10-year average and outstrip the combined $71.6 billion achieved from the poor conditions that affected outcomes in season 2023-24.
Some experts have been prepared to stick their necks out and predict the gross value of income from farms, fisheries and forestry to reach $90.8 billion for season 2024-25, the third highest on record.
The take-home pay for broadacre farmers is also set to rebound in 2024-25 to average farm cash incomes of $192,000. Quite a relief following significant falls in the previous 2023–24 season.
Also stemming from the forecast of improved climate conditions and growing season is an expected turnaround in livestock prices in 2024-25 that are expected to be behind the increases in farm income.”
The predicted $36.2 billion from livestock production and products industries will be at a record level if achieved as a result of expected favourable climate conditions and improving prices.
Much of the early enthusiasm has been prompted by above-average summer 2023–24 rainfall and subsequent build-up of soil moisture reserves in eastern Australia. Considered enough to provide growers with the incentive they need for early plantings ahead of the 2024–25 winter crop season.
Exports expected to take a hit
While the 2024-25 outlook is favourable for production, it is not expected to lead to increased exports as the experts look in fact to further declines.
The total export value from farm, fisheries and forestry exports already fell by 13% to $71.6 billion in 2023–24, but this was expected as it came off the record high of the 2022-23 season the previous year.
But a decline is expected to continue, albeit coming off the 2023-24 season that barely covered the 10-year average. Exporters have been asked to brace for a further 5% decline that could level out the 2024-25 season value at $68.1 billion.
How season 2023-24 shaped results
Winter crop production is always expected to carry the bulk of the burden to maintain farmgate income but following the all-time record income of season 2022-23 growers witnessed a fall of 32% to 46.7 million tonnes in 2023-24.
Despite what appears to be a tragedy, the fall from the record high achieved in 2022-23, was still slightly above the 10-year average to 2022–23 of 46.5 million tonnes.
It was far worse for growers in the dry-belt regions above the invisible line that are always susceptible to a dry season and with mixed conditions across winter cropping regions throughout the 2023–24 winter cropping season they were hit hard.
In other regions, there was more favourable timing of rainfall events, and this boosted production across major cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia. By contrast to the persistent dryness that reduced yield potential in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia.
The national winter crop harvest progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years. Driven by a hot and dry finish in Queensland, northern New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia.
While widespread rainfall events in November 2023 and early summer resulted in some harvest delays across major cropping regions in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia.
The quality profile of the national wheat crop was mixed with a higher proportion of wheat making high protein grades compared to the three previous wet La Niña event years, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia.
However, wheat in Victoria and parts of New South Wales was heavily weighted toward lower protein Standard White grade, with some quality downgrades due to the wetter-than-expected harvest conditions.
Final national tally for 2023-24
The national winter crop reflected improved production levels in Victoria and New South Wales, estimated to more than offset reduced production in Western Australia.
Wheat production took one of the biggest hits when compared to last year. Falling by 36% to 26 million tonnes to sit 2% below the 10-year average. Not a result many were expecting considering the enthusiasm at planting.
Barley production was expected to hold up better but took a late fall of 24% to realise just 10.8 million tonnes, 4% below the 10-year average.
Canola production fell a hefty 31% to 5.7 million tonnes when compared to the previous record season, but still remained well above the 10-year average as the area planted was the second highest on record.
Western Australia
Winter crop production in Western Australia struggled to reach 14.7 million tonnes in 2023-24, down 44% from the 2022-23 record and 15% below the 10-year average to 2022-23.
Behind this diminished result was persistent dry spring conditions resulting in lower yields than initially forecast in most regions. The below average harvest also reflects the drier start to the winter cropping season.
This was coupled with below average soil moisture levels throughout much of the season and unfavourably dry seasonal conditions, particularly in the lower-rainfall northern cropping regions of Western Australia.
Rainfall events and harvest bans to reduce the risk of bushfires led to some harvest disruptions. Overall, the winter crop harvest in Western Australia progressed at a fast pace and finished much earlier than in recent years, mostly reflecting hot and dry finishing conditions.
Despite the fall in crop yields, grain quality was better than expected, with a higher proportion of wheat making premium high protein grades and lower screenings reported compared to the two previous record seasons.
However, the share of barley-making malt grades was lower than in recent years, reflecting dry finishing conditions and higher screenings.
A synopsis of the initial plantings already showed there was concern from some growers, but wheat was expected to be safe with 4.65 million/ha planted but the crop only managed to produce 7.7 million tonnes, down 47% on last year.
Growers were bullish about the prospects of barley and planted 3% more than last year for an area of 1.6 million/ha. And at a yield level of 2.31 tonnes/ha the production total of 3.7 million tonnes was 34% down on last year.
While for canola, growers were 14% less enthusiastic than last year and planted down an area of 1.8 million/ha, and on a yield of 1.39 tonnes/ha the production total of 2.5 million tonnes was 42% down on last year.
Growers having a second crack at Lupins were very conservative with a 38% reduction in the area planted at 0.250 million/ha, and on a yield of 1.36 tonnes/ha the production total dwindled to just 0.340 million tonnes down 63% on last year.
New South Wales
Growers across New South Wales went on a wild ride to eventually reach 11 million tonnes in the 2023-24 winter season for a disappointing 5% below the 10-year average to 2022-23 and 29% below the near-record production of last year.
Just a few were cautious at planting with 6% pulling back their area planted last year to rest on 5.5 million/ha in 2023-24, similar to the 10-year average to 2022-23.
Much of the mayhem took place above the invisible dry cropping line in northern New South Wales where growers experienced persistent unfavourable climatic conditions throughout the winter cropping season, resulting in below average production.
Fortunately for those in higher rainfall areas south results were outweighed by the overall improvement in crop yields in the central to southern parts of the state, attributed to the average to above average October and November rainfall.
The area planted for wheat in NSW was 3.3 million/ha, down 8% from last year and with a yield of 2.15 tonnes/ha the production total was 7.0 million tonnes.
High on the optimism list was barley with NSW growers planted down an area of 0.8 million/ha, and with a yield of 2.40 tonnes/ha the production total scaled out to 1.92 million tonnes. Down 16% from last year.
While canola managed to keep most of its converts with the area planted at 0.84 million/ha, with a yield of 1.60 tonnes/ha to show a production total of 1.34 million tonnes. Down 25% from last year.
Victoria
Growers in Victoria continued their successful run with an outstanding production tally of 10.4 million tonnes from winter season 2023-24, only slightly below the record 11 million tonnes set in 2022-23. A result that sits 38% above the 10-year average for 2022-23.
The high yields reflect favourable conditions during key growing periods across most cropping regions.
Despite below average rainfall during September, timely and adequate rainfall in October and November supported grain fill in cereal crops across the state.
Growers in VIC were puffed up from the very start of planting with favourable conditions that enabled timely planting of 3.6 million/ha, 6% above the 10-year average to 2022-23.
With high stored soil moisture profiles leading to strong crop establishment and growth supported by consistent winter rainfall the winter crop yields sit just below the record levels of 2022-23,
Below average rainfall across the Mallee and Wimmera regions during September was expected to reduce crop prospects in these areas. However, average to above average rainfall during October and November was adequate to provide upside potential to grain and oilseed yields in those areas.
Harvest activity was prolonged in some central and southern regions of Victoria due to the heavy rainfall totals recorded in late November and early December.
The cool and wet finish also impacted the quality profile of wheat harvested in Victoria, with a high proportion making Standard White grade and downgrades to feed were also reported.
Similar quality downgrades for barley were also detected, affecting the proportion of the crop meeting malting grade specification.
The area planted for wheat in VIC was up 3% to 1.54 million/ha, and from a high yield of 3.38 tonnes/ha it pushed wheat production to a total of 5.2 million tonnes. Down 4% on last year.
Barley was also a favourite for VIC growers, and they planted down an area of 0.83 million/ha, up 1% on last year. With a strong yield of 3.35 tonnes/ha the production total levelled out at 3.35 million tonnes. Down 4% from last year.
Canola lost some of its glamour with the area planted down 8% at 0.55 million/ha, and with a yield of 2.29 tonnes/ha clawed its way to a production total of 1.26 million tonnes. Down 9% from last year.
South Australia
The onset of drier climate conditions across most cropping regions in South Australia was the leveller that saw a 31% fall to 8.7 million tonnes in 2023-24 when compared to season 2022-23.
This result broadly sits 11% above the 10-year average for 2022-23.
Despite the onset of drier climatic conditions, growing conditions across the state remained somewhat favourable with high levels of subsoil moisture due to timely summer rainfall events.
While yields across South Australia are above the 10-year average, production conditions were highly variable across different regions.
The winter crop harvest in South Australia progressed at a much faster pace than recent years with drier conditions during November enabling an early harvest.
Due to this early harvest, grain quality was reportedly high especially in early crops with very high protein, particularly through the Eyre and York Peninsula.
However, rainfall in late December affected the later sown crops, leading to quality downgrades in the Southeast due to the timing of rainfall right on the cusp of harvest.
Frost events during spring caused damage to some crops, however, dry finishing conditions had a larger negative effect on yields than any downgrades caused by frost damage.
An earlier finish to the season enabled greater access to subsoil moisture resulting in above-average yields for the major broadacre crops.
The continued uptake in the planting of genetically modified canola particularly across the southern areas has had a positive impact on yields across the state.
The early sowing of the crop and the ability to access deep soil moisture have been favourable for canola across the state.
Growers in SA were positive at planting of wheat and remained in line with last year at 2.2 million/ha but were let down with a 2.18 tonnes/ha yield to only realise a production level of 4.8 million tonnes. Down 35% from last year.
Barley was planted across an area of 0.80 million/ha, about the same as last year but a yield of 2.56 tonnes/ha reduced the production total to 2.0 million tonnes. Down 29% when compared with last year.
While the area planted for canola in SA was line-ball with last year at 0.29 million/ha, the yield of just 1.97 tonnes/ha levelled the production total to 0.57 million tonnes. Down 26% on last year.
Queensland
Queensland growers were faced with a lack of rainfall during the winter growing season and this impeded crop development.
The drawdown in soil moisture reserves throughout the winter cropping season proved insufficient to maintain average production outcomes.
As a result, crop production fell by 48% to 1.7 million tonnes in 2023-24, reflecting the onset of drier conditions across most cropping regions. Some 14% below the 10-year average to 2022-23.
Coming off two record winter seasons growers in QLD rallied to plant 0.72 million/ha of wheat, a drop of 27% over last year. With a yield of 1.50 tonnes/ha production only reached 1.08 million tonnes. Down 58% on last year.
Barley was more in favour with QLD growers as they increased the planting by 10% for an area of 0.15 million/ha. With a yield of just 2.00 tonnes/ha the production total was stretched at 3.0 million tonnes. Down a massive 26% from last year.
The staple QLD grower favourite, chickpeas shot up by 10% at planting to 0.22 million/ha, and with a yield of 1.45 tonnes/ha showed a production total of 3.2 million tonnes. Up 10% from last year.
