Across all states growers are expected to harvest 55.2 million tonnes of grain in winter season 2024-25 with some prospects better than others
With a winter harvest 2024-25 haul of an estimated 55.2 million tonnes, it places growers in a secure position at 17% above the 10-year average result.
But it is not a straightforward position where growers in all states will come out on top.
It is expected the winter crop harvest will favour growers in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia following better-than-expected seasonal conditions.
In contrast, South Australian and Victorian growers are faced with the prospect of a lower tally than last year.
Unfavourable conditions in north and western Victoria and most of South Australia came about following below-average winter rainfall.
The 2024-25 winter crop will contribute to the overall value of agriculture production reaching an estimated $86.2 billion, an increase of $3.7 billion over last year. The third highest result on record.
And from this result, farmers will have an estimated $68.5 billion in excess production not required by the domestic market that can be sold into overseas markets.
Let’s take a closer look at the state-by-state expectations for the 2024-25 winter crop.
Western Australia
Off the back of a season most growers would prefer to forget last year, winter crop production in Western Australia is forecast to rise by 24% to 18.4 million tonnes in 2024-25.
Behind this expectation are vastly improved seasonal conditions that expect to see WA top the crop harvest at 7% above the 10-year average to 2023-24 with a 17.2 million tonnes haul.
Early on in the season, many expected a repeat of last year as unfavourably dry conditions were predominant at the start of the winter cropping season.
However, early June rainfall across northern and western cropping regions was enough to support crop establishment and growth.
Timely rainfall and warmer growing conditions in July and August accelerated crop development, which had been later than normal due to the dry start to the season.
Improved seasonal conditions have reinforced yield potentials, mostly benefitting cereal crops.
By contrast, planting and establishment conditions were largely unfavourable in some southern cropping regions of WA, particularly in the Esperance zone and eastern cropping regions in the Albany zone.
Drier conditions in these areas have led to crops experiencing moisture stress, limiting yield potential.
According to the rainfall outlook up until November, issued by the Bureau, there are roughly equal chances of higher or lower than average spring rainfall in most cropping regions in Western Australia.
The outlook for early spring rainfall and mild temperatures should support winter crops through critical development stages and provide favourable growing conditions to maintain above-average yields across most cropping regions.
Winter crop yields are expected to rise by 25% to 2.13 tonnes/ha, 5% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The average state wheat yield is forecast to increase by 32% to 2.19 tonnes/ha. If achieved, the largest year-on-year increase in yield, reflecting improved conditions in northern cropping regions.
This compares to the average state canola yield which is forecast to increase by 7% to 1.48 tonnes/ha. The dry start to the season has led to patchy emergence and growth in most canola crops.
This has reduced overall yield potential given the majority of canola is grown in southern cropping regions where conditions have been less favourable.
The area planted to winter crops in WA for winter season 2024-25 is estimated to be down slightly to 8.6 million/ha, but still remain 2% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
This largely reflects the drier- and hotter-than-average conditions during autumn with a reduction in area sown in lower-rainfall cropping regions, especially for higher production risk crops such as canola.
The area planted to wheat in WA is estimated at 4.75 million/ha, assuming a yield of 2.19 tonnes/ha for a production total of 10.4 million tonnes.
It is estimated WA growers planted down an area of 1.65 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.73 tonnes/ha for a production total of 4.5 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola is estimated at 1.55 million/ha, with an assumed yield of 1.48 tonnes/ha it is expected to show a production total of 2.3 million tonnes.
Lupins are also gaining momentum with WA growers, with an estimated 0.33 million/ha, planted with an assumed yield of 1.48 tonnes/ha. Leading to a production total of 0.49 million tonnes.
New South Wales
Early in the planting season, NSW growers looked likely to be the top producers from the 2024-25 winter crop, with expectations of a 50% increase over last year to 16.9 million tonnes.
If achieved, this result will be the third highest on record for NSW growers at 43% above the 10-year average. But just short of the WA tally for the top production state title.
This improvement in production prospects gained momentum from the high levels of soil moisture at the time of planting and average to above-average rainfall in central and northern New South Wales throughout winter.
The rainfall outlook up until November issued by the Bureau suggests a 50 to 65% chance of above-average rainfall for most cropping regions in NSW. This result will support high-yield potentials throughout spring.
Winter crop yields in NSW are forecast to rise by 28% to 2.62 tonnes/ha, 30% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Average to above-average soil moisture levels across NSW throughout winter, combined with the favourable rainfall outlook for spring, combined to support increased yield prospects.
However, yield prospects in southern cropping regions are still highly reliant on adequate and timely rainfall to realise current yield expectations due to the drier start to the season.
The area planted to winter crops in NSW is estimated to have increase by 17% to 6.4 million/ha, the third-highest planted area on record. A strong 17% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting gave growers plenty of confidence and led to area increases for all winter crops.
With many growers expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops such as northwest New South Wales.
Chickpea plantings set a strong trend with an estimated increase of 133% showing the largest year-on-year increase among winter crops this season.
The increase in area planted is due to the Indian government’s announcement of a tariff-free period for Australian chickpea exports.
The increase in wheat and barley area reflects above-average subsoil moisture across much of NSW at the time of planting and favourable rainfall throughout winter.
The increase in wheat and barley area planted looks substantial, but it does include regions that were too dry to plant last year.
Drier conditions during autumn coupled with lower soil moisture levels in some southern cropping regions limited canola area expansions across the state to a 7% year-on-year increase.
Despite this lower relative rate of increase, the canola area planted represents the third highest on record for NSW WITH conditions in central NSW growers taking up the slack.
The area planted for wheat in NSW is estimated at 3.75 million/ha, assuming a yield of 2.93 tonnes/ha for a production total of 11.0 million tonnes.
It is estimated NSW growers planted down an area of 0.98 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.86 tonnes/ha for a production total of 2.8 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola is estimated at 0.90 million/ha, with an assumed yield of 2. 0 tonnes/ha it is expected to show a production total of 2.0 million tonnes.
Another notable trend for NSW growers was the enthusiasm toward Chickpeas with an estimated 0.35 million/ha planted. With an assumed yield of 1.86 tonnes/ha it could represent a production total of 0.65 million tonnes.
Victoria
Victorian growers are expected to fill the third slot as far as production levels from the 2024-25 winter crop at 8.6 million tonnes.
For a band of growers that have had such a good run on year-on-year increases, it represents a 19% drop over last year, but still a healthy 9% above the 10-year average to 2023-24 and is the sixth highest on record for the state.
Most growers in VIC are not complaining about this outcome as production levels in 2024–25 remain higher than during the dry conditions from 2017-18 to 2019-20 and generally stronger than most years between 2010 to 2020.
The biggest hit came from below-average winter rainfall in some key cropping regions, including the South-West and North-West where production will be limited.
Additionally, dry sowing conditions delayed crop emergence and development.
As subsoil moisture continues to decline, timely and sufficient rainfall throughout spring will be important for supporting flowering and grain fill.
In contrast, growing conditions in northeastern cropping regions – where average crop yields are typically higher than in western areas – have been more favourable.
With adequate moisture levels supporting crop growth and development in the northeast, it has helped to maintain the 10-year average production levels across the state.
The rainfall outlook up until November issued by the Bureau indicates there is no strong tendency towards either below-average or above-average spring rainfall for Victorian cropping regions, with a 45% to 60% chance of exceeding the spring median.
These conditions are expected to be only sufficient to maintain current yield and production prospects due to the limited levels of subsoil moisture across the state.
Additionally, warmer-than-average temperatures throughout spring present a potential downside risk to this forecast given the below-average levels of stored subsoil moisture.
As a result, winter crop yields in Victoria are forecast to fall by 17% in 2024-25 but remain above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Due to the recent drawdown of subsoil moisture, sufficient and timely rainfall will be important to maintain above-average yields for some regions.
Potential downside risks for the Mallee and Wimmera regions persist if they continue to remain dry, which could further constrain yields.
The area planted for winter crops in Victoria is estimated to have decrease by 2%, to 3.6 million/ha in 2024–25. This is 5% above the 10-year average for 2023-24.
The area planted is estimated to have decreases for barley (down 1%), wheat (down 3%) and canola (down 6%) as growers shift towards expanding the area planted to lentils in crop rotations.
The only increase in plantings has been for lentils at an estimated increase of 13% to 430 thousand/ha, 94% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
Strong export prices, particularly compared to other pulses and crops such as oats, have incentivised increased lentil plantings in 2024-25.
The area planted for wheat in VIC is estimated at 1.50 million/ha, and assuming a mild yield of 2.65 tonnes/ha, production is expected to total 3.97 million tonnes.
It is estimated VIC growers planted down an area of 0.82 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.93 tonnes/ha for a production total of 2.4 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola in VIC is estimated at 0.52 million/ha, an assumed yield of 1.83 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of 0.95 million tonnes.
The only crop to show an increase in the planted area was Lentils, estimated at 0.43 million/ha, and with an assumed yield of 1.84 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of 0.79 million tonnes.
South Australia
Growers in SA were blighted with a dry start to the 2024-25 winter planting season and made growers extra cautious.
As a result, winter crop production in SA is forecast to fall by 9% to 7.9 million tonnes, reflecting persistent dry conditions across most cropping regions.
This positions the SA crop at slightly below the 10-year average to 2023-24 and stands at only the seventh highest in the record books.
Below-average rainfall through winter has seen soil moisture levels continue to decline across most cropping regions, delayed crop establishment and reduced yield prospects.
While overall yields are forecast to fall, there is some regional variability, with localised rainfall events in the lower and eastern Eyre Peninsula in June cushioning yield reductions in these areas.
According to the rainfall outlook up until November issued by the Bureau, rainfall is likely to be below average across western and central cropping regions in SA, with above average temperatures also expected.
The increased chance of drier and warmer conditions through spring presents a downside risk for winter crops that are already experiencing moisture stress.
Given the late start to the season and with temperatures rising, final yield prospects will be highly dependent on adequate and timely rainfall in spring.
Winter crop yields for SA are forecast to fall by 9% in to 2.02 tonnes/ha, 6% below the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Canola yields, typically more sensitive to dry conditions, are expected to fall by 23% to 1.58 tonnes/ha, 9% below the 10-year average to 2023-24.
Wheat and barley yields are also expected to fall year-on-year by 8% and 5% respectively.
While Lentil yields are forecast to fall by 6% to 1.83 tonnes/ha. Despite the fall, lentil yields are expected to be in line with the 10-year average to 2023-24, reflecting a transition towards higher yielding varieties planted in recent years.
The area planted to winter crops in SA is forecast to fall by 1% to 3.9 million/ha in 2024-25, with reductions in area planted to wheat, barley and canola partially offset by an increase in the area planted to lentils.
However, this forecast remains 7% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The largest reduction in area planted is seen in canola, down 7% year-on-year, driven by dry conditions at planting and substitution towards other crops such as lentils.
The area planted to lentils is forecast to increase by 21% to 470 thousand/ha, driven by high export prices at the time of planting. The increase in lentil area comes at the expense of area planted for canola and minor crops such as field peas and lupins.
Growers in SA have been the most badly done by as the winter season 2024-25 has progressed, with the area planted to wheat estimated at 2.1 million/ha, and assuming a lower-end yield of 2.0 tonnes/ha, production is only expected to reach 4.3 million tonnes.
It is estimated SA growers planted down an area of 0.81 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.37 tonnes/ha for a production total of a dwindling 1.92 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola in SA took a small caning at an estimated 0.26 million/ha, with an assumed yield of just 1.58 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of a mere 0.41 million tonnes.
However, growers chasing some big returns saw an increase in the planted area for Lentils, estimated at 0.47 million/ha, and with an assumed yield of 1.83 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of 0.86 million tonnes.
Queensland
Growers in Queensland suffered their worst Winter cropping season since 2019-20 last year, and the blow was heavy as it came off a costly planting buoyed by three strong previous winter seasons.
Just where QLD growers found the will to beg their bank manager for funds to plant down a considerable crop for winter season 2024-25 is the source of an amazing turn-around with crop production increases predicted up by 94%, to reach 3.3 million tonnes
If achieved this will be the third-highest production on record for QLD growers, and 62% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
This increase in production is attributed to growers taking full advantage of above-average sub-soil moisture across most growing regions.
Additionally, the spring climate outlook is expected to offer favourable conditions for crop flowering and grain-filling, helping to sustain strong yield potential.
Every star is lined in favour for QLD growers, with winter crop yields forecast to rise by 45% to around 2.19 tonnes/ha in 2024-25, 32% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The climate outlook issued by the Bureau up until November suggests a 50 to 65% chance of above-average rainfall for most cropping regions in Queensland.
Coupled with currently above-average sub-soil moisture, this favourable climate outlook is expected to maintain above-average yield prospects.
The area planted for winter crops in QLD is estimated to be 1.5 million/ha, a rise of 34% year-on-year and sitting 29% above the 10-year average to 2023-24.
The year-on-year expansion in the area planted is attributed to the optimal start to the cropping season, driven by adequate rainfall and high soil moisture levels at planting.
Chickpeas gained the largest increase in area, up 73% year-on-year. The announcement of a tariff-free period for Australian chickpeas by India has acted as a catalyst for a significant expansion in QLD this season.
Coming off the worst winter season in years growers in QLD had to dig physique to plant 0.90 million/ha to wheat for a yield estimated at a strong 2.33 tonnes/ha, while production is expected to total 2.1 million tonnes.
QLD growers gave barley another chance with an increased plant of 20% for an area of 0.18 million/ha, assuming a yield of 2.83 tonnes/ha for a production total of 0.51 million tonnes.
While the area planted for chickpeas in QLD shot up by 73% to an estimated 0.38 million/ha, with an assumed yield of 1.68 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of 0.64 million tonnes.
