It all depended on which side of the invisible cropping line separated dryer than average conditions in the north as compared to good results in the southern cropping regions
Growers had nothing to complain about for the past three winter cropping seasons with consecutive years of record crop production but as dryer conditions from a combined El Niño event and positive Indian Ocean Dipole began to bite, marginal cropping region in the north took an unexpected hit.
However, to balance off the failed crops up north were growers in southern regions where conditions were good and even above average. Resulting in one of the most mixed results for the 2023–24 winter cropping season seen for quite a while.
Following below average rainfall, everything changed in early October when rainfall boosted prospects for cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia. Better than expected rainfall and improved soil moisture levels benefitted winter crop growth in these regions.
By contrast, seasonal conditions were largely unfavourable at the start of the season in Queensland and northern New South Wales and deteriorated further as the season progressed.
In Western Australia, any high prospects were dashed as seasonal conditions worsened over spring and reduced yield potential, particularly in northern cropping regions.
Overall, right across the country, the winter harvest for 2023-24 progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years.
The earlier start to harvest reflected hot and dry finishing conditions in Queensland, northern New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia. Lower yields translated to reduced labour requirements and the big class 10 and 11 combine harvesters brought in to handle previous record seasons at great expense were able to chew through the 2023-24 crops at a much faster pace.
And there are times when you don’t want the rain, as seen when significant rainfall totals came across much of eastern Australia in late November 2023.
These widespread falls delayed the harvest for many across central and southern New South Wales, Victoria and parts of South Australia and led to a fall in grain quality in unharvested crops.
According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (December to February), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 23 November 2023, there is no strong tendency towards above or below median rainfall across most cropping regions.
December rainfall totals are expected to be below 25 millimetres for most southern cropping regions. This should allow for the timely completion of the national winter harvest and minimise the potential grain quality downgrades that are typically associated with wet harvest conditions.
However, if higher than expected rainfall totals were to continue in December, this will likely cause further grain quality downgrades in unharvested crops.
The raw harvest numbers
While the total crop is still to be harvested and tallied, early forecasts for the 2023-24 winter crop production are for a fall from record highs achieved in 2022-23. With production expected to be down by 33% to 46.1 million tonnes in 2023–24.
And while that result is slightly below the 10-year average it is an improvement on previous estimates, due to welcome rain in southern cropping regions, which are expected to offset reduced production in northern parts of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
However, growers will also have to contend with the prospect of below average yields brought about by the persistent dry conditions in key northern cropping regions:
Wheat production is forecast to fall by 37% to 25.5 million tonnes, 4% below the 10-year average. This is an upward revision from what was expected in the September forecast.
Barley production is forecast to fall by 24% to 10.8 million tonnes, 4% below the 10-year average. This is also an upward revision from the September forecast.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 33% to 5.5 million tonnes but remains well above the 10-year average on account of the area planted estimated to be the second highest on record. This is an upward revision from the September forecast.
The area planted for winter crops in 2023–24 was from growers showing great enthusiasm with three record seasons already banked and was historically high at 23 million hectares, 4% above the 10-year average to 2022-23.
The cropping regions that reduced plantings when compared to the all-time record included a 6% decrease in area planted in New South Wales and Western Australia and a 9% decrease in Queensland.
Western Australia
Coming off the back of an all-time winter crop production record in Western Australia in season 2022-23, it is expected that 15.5 million tonnes will be harvested in 2023–24, down 41% and bringing with it a please explain from the bank.
This represents a downward revision from the already pessimistic September forecast and if confirmed will be 11% below the 10-year average to 2022-23.
Growing conditions for winter crops in WA for season 2023–24 were largely unfavourable, especially across northern cropping regions.
Persistent dryness limited yield potential and led to production downgrades, especially in regions where soil moisture levels were below average.
This has mostly affected the production potential of wheat, given the high proportion of wheat grown in the lower-rainfall northern cropping regions of WA.
As a result, wheat production is forecast to fall by 44%, with the average state yield forecast to be 17% below the 10-year average to 2022–23.
This result for wheat is from an area planted of 4.65 million/ha, assuming a yield of 1.75 tonnes/ha for a production total of 8.15 million tonnes.
Barley and canola yields are also forecast to be below the 10-year average, however, to a lesser extent than wheat because of more favourable conditions in southern cropping regions where the majority of barley and canola is grown.
It is estimated growers planted down an area of 1.6 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.5 tonnes/ha for a production total of 4.0 million tonnes.
While for canola, it is estimated growers were more enthusiastic and planted down an area of 1.8 million/ha of canola, and assuming a yield of 1.39 tonnes/ha it is expected to show a production total of 2.5 million tonnes.
The winter crop harvest in WA progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years. This was driven by hot and dry finishing conditions while improved labour availability and increased harvester capacity are also contributing to the faster pace of this year’s harvest.
The dry finish to the season has led to above average protein levels, however, high screenings have been reported.
Rainfall and storm activity in November caused some harvesting delays across parts of the central and southern cropping regions. The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for December (issued on 23 November 2023) suggests there is a nearly equal chance of above or below average rainfall for cropping regions in Western Australia.
Growers are praying for no further rain and if that small favour is granted it should allow harvesting of winter crops to progress with minimal interruption.
New South wales
Forecasting winter crop production in New South Wales this season has been somewhat of a jigsaw puzzle. The current forecast is expected to reach 10.3 million tonnes in 2023–24.
This is a slight upward revision from the September forecast but if realised would still be 33% down on the 2022-23 season and a disappointing 11% below the 10-year average.
There are significant regional differences in crop production, which is largely attributed to the highly variable seasonal conditions across the state throughout the growing season. In 2023–24, a high percentage of the crop production in NSW is coming out of the southern regions of the state.
The formation of both an El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole presented a significant risk to winter crop yields in NSW during 2023–24.
The rainfall between April to October averaged across the entire NSW wheat-sheep zone, was 38% below the long-term average (1993 to 2022). While the August to October daytime temperatures were above average, with prominent observations of at least 5°C above average recorded in the central north and at least 2°C above average in southern cropping regions.
Below average rainfall combined with higher-than-average temperatures depleted soil moisture and resulted in a decline in crop production prospects.
This was particularly so in the northern areas where climatic conditions were highly unfavourable throughout the season. Subsequently, northern cropping areas of the state saw an earlier harvest with below average yields.
Planted area in northern regions was also lower compared to previous seasons due to below average sub-soil moisture and the drier-than-average seasonal climate outlook at the start of the season.
Southern cropping regions in NSW at planting, before entering the growing season had above average levels of stored soil moisture. Subsequent rain events boosted soil moisture levels to maintain average to above average production levels.
While these southern growing regions were exposed to frost events in September and October, any damage to crops in the grain-filling stage is likely to have been localised and insignificant to overall crop production.
Additionally, rainfall totals of up to 200 millimetres in some areas in November caused harvesting delays and are expected to affect the grain quality of crops still to be harvested.
The area planted to wheat in NSW is estimated at 3.3 million/ha, and assuming a yield of 2.0 tonnes/ha for a production total of 6.6 million tonnes.
It is estimated NSW growers planted down an area of 0.8 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.18 tonnes/ha for a production total of 1.74 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola is estimated at 1.55 million/ha, with an assumed yield of 1.55 tonnes/ha it is expected to show a production total of 1.3 million tonnes.
Victoria
Winter crop production in Victoria has held up well and from the record high last year of 11 million tonnes is forecast to reach 9.6 million tonnes in 2023-24.
The decline year-on-year doesn’t look so bad when production is still tipped 28% above the 10-year average to 2022-23. The result has been revised up since early estimates due to higher than expected yields, reflecting favourable conditions during key growing periods across most cropping regions in VIC.
Below average rainfall in September provided some downside risk to this forecast, however, sufficient and timely rainfall in October helped support grain fill in cereal crops across much of the state.
A favourable start to the season enabled timely planting for winter crops, with the area planted forecast at 3.6 million/ha, 6% above the 10-year average.
Winter crop yields are expected to approach the record levels of 2022-23, given high stored soil moisture profiles, and crop establishment and growth supported by consistent winter rainfall.
However, below average spring rainfall across the Mallee and Wimmera regions has reduced crop prospects in these areas.
While despite dry conditions during September, average to above average rainfall in central and northern districts in October provided upside potential to grain and oilseed yields in those areas.
These October falls are also expected to provide some upside potential to pulse production in VIC, with lentils in the fringe Mallee country expected to benefit the most.
Harvest activity is well underway in all cropping regions of VIC, despite rainfall in November delaying the harvest and has likely led to a fall in grain quality in late harvested crops.
The prospect of additional rainfall in December will further influence the progress of harvest and quality of grain harvested. Initial testing suggests lower protein levels for wheat, with barley trending more towards malting grades given the cooler finish to the season.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest rainfall outlook (issued on 23 November 2023) indicates rainfall across cropping regions in Victoria is not likely to exceed the median in December.
This should allow for the timely completion of Victoria’s winter harvest and minimise the potential grain quality downgrades that are typically associated with wet harvest conditions.
The area planted for wheat in VIC is estimated at 1.54 million/ha, and assuming a promising yield of 3.0 tonnes/ha, production is expected to total 4.6 million tonnes.
It is estimated VIC growers planted down an area of 0.83 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 3.12 tonnes/ha for a production total of 2.95 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola in VIC is estimated at 0.55 million/ha, an assumed yield of 2.19 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of 1.2 million tonnes.
South Australia
Coming off a record haul in season 2022-23 of 12.6 million tonnes, winter crop production in South Australia is forecast to fall by 31% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2023–24.
This result reflects the onset of drier El Niño conditions across most cropping regions but is in fact an upward revision since the September forecast and sits 11% above the 10-year average.
This upward revision is driven by most crops performing better than expected, with stored soil moisture supporting higher than expected yields despite the dry spring conditions.
For the 2023-24 winter cropping season, rainfall totals were below average in central and western cropping districts but above average in northern regions of SA.
Warmer than average temperatures have also impacted winter crop production, with SA growers experiencing the second warmest winter on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
While yields across South Australia are likely to be above the 10-year average, production conditions have been highly variable across different regions.
Winter crop yields are forecast to reach average levels in the Northern Mallee and Eyre Peninsula regions. Despite persistent dryness in early spring, high levels of stored soil moisture supported crop growth in these regions.
Frost damage has also negatively impacted crop production and yields, particularly in cropping regions across the upper-north, the mid-north, the upper southeast and the Upper Eyre Peninsula.
However overall, it is likely that higher yields in other areas will more than offset downgrades caused by frost damage.
Well below average spring rainfall and warmer than average temperatures have meant that South Australia has experienced one of the earliest harvests on record.
Rainfall in November caused some harvesting delays and caused grain quality downgrades for unharvested crops.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for December (issued on 23 November 2023) suggests there is a nearly equal chance of above or below average rainfall for cropping regions in South Australia.
If this prediction comes to pass, it will allow winter crop harvesting to be completed with minimal interruption.
Growers in SA were keen to get ahead and the area planted to wheat is estimated at 2.2 million/ha, and assuming a reasonable yield of 2.2 tonnes/ha, production is expected to reach 4.9 million tonnes.
It is estimated SA growers planted down an area of 0.80 million/ha of barley, assuming a yield of 2.63 tonnes/ha for a production total of 2.1 million tonnes.
While the area planted for canola in SA is estimated at 0.29 million/ha, with an assumed yield of just 1.76 tonnes/ha is expected to show a production total of 0.51 million tonnes.
Queensland
Growers in Queensland braced for a long winter with crop production forecast to fall by 48% to 1.7 million tonnes in winter season 2023-24.
To make matters worse, this is also a downward revision from the September forecast and is 14% below the 10-year average.
This revision is driven by drier than expected conditions during September and October and the depletion of stored soil moisture, leading to widespread moisture stress.
The overall area planted for winter crops is expected to be 1.2 million/ha in 2023-24, 5% above the 10-year average and only slightly down on the area planted in 2022–23. Signalling high input costs for a poor return to growers.
Lack of rainfall during the winter growing season impeded crop development, with soil moisture levels remaining well below average throughout October.
A lack of late winter and early spring rainfall led to a dry finish for most cropping regions but particularly in southern Queensland. Across the southeast cropping regions, rainfall was below average with some regions recording rainfall totals in the lowest 10% of records.
Coming off two record winter seasons growers in QLD rallied to plant 0.80 million/ha to wheat for a yield estimated at 1.38 tonnes/ha, while production is expected to total 1.1 million tonnes.
A little more in favour of QLD growers was barley with an increased plant of 10% for an area of 0.15 million/ha, assuming a yield of 1.87 tonnes/ha for a production total of 2.80 million tonnes.
While the area planted for chickpeas in QLD shot up by 20% to an estimated 0.24 million/ha, with an assumed yield of 1.33 tonnes/ha and is expected to show a production total of 3.2 million tonnes.
