It’s a strong start to the 2024-25 season with at least 23.6 million hectares planted and a long-range forecast for average to above-average rainfall in most regions
Growers in the eastern states in particular started the season with plenty of moisture in the ground, while Western and South Australian growers had to contemplate a riskier scenario at planting and have sore necks from looking to the heavens. Their prayers appear to be answered.
Across the country, growers have stepped up to plant at least 23.6 million hectares for the winter harvest so far that looks to be blessed with a good rainfall outlook even for regions that got off to a dry start.
The volume of seed planted is much higher than many industry pundits expected, due to the dry start in the west where many growers did ‘chuck in the towel’ as the season opportunity was lost to dryer-than-ideal conditions.
And while there will be planting shortfalls in marginal cropping regions badly affected by losses experienced from dry conditions last year, it has not dented the overall enthusiasm for most growers to get a crop into the ground.
As a result, it is estimated the average broadacre farm cash income for season 2024–25 will increase by $45,000 to $149,000
While the gross value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry is expected to increase by 2% from the $87.6 billion tallied in season 2023-24 to reach $89.5 billion in the current 2024-25 season. The third highest on record.
These forecasts are supported by an almost perfect seasonal outlook with the Bureau’s long-range forecast predicting above-average rainfall for parts of North West and North East pastoral districts in South Australia, parts of central-west Western Australia, the North Tropical Coast and south-west Queensland.
While far north-western New South Wales is expected to benefit from above-average rainfall , while elsewhere, rainfall is likely to be average and more typical for the season.
The star of the show for season 2024-25 is expected to be from growers in the horticulture sector where continued growth has spirited that sector to a record farmgate high of $17.4 billion, led by increases in fruit and nuts.
Broadacre crops will also put up a good showing with the value of crop production expected to grow by 2% to $48.1 billion in 2024-25 on the back of higher production levels.
Growers in NSW and Queensland had a good physical start to the season with plenty of moisture, and in addition, were given a major boost as the news of Indian tariff reductions filtered through.
As a result, the area planted for chickpeas increased by 79%, and the area planted lentils also shot up to an all-time record 885 thousand hectares.
And while it is expected to be the third highest harvest on record, the only roadblock visible at this early stage for growers adding substantially to their bank accounts are possible lower prices resulting from higher global production.
This could result in a lower exportable supply of grains and oilseeds in 2024-25 and see the value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry exports decline by 4% to $73.1 billion over last year. That level would still be the third highest on record.
How the season was shaped
The initial estimate for winter crop plantings for season 2024-25 across the country is on the high side at 23.6 million hectares.
With expectations of good season rainfall during the growing period the national winter crop production is expected to increase to 51.3 million tonnes for winter season 2024-25, an increase of 9% over last year.
This is a solid result as it’s actually 9% above the 10-year average to 2023–24 of 47 million tonnes and if everything runs to fruition will be at least the fifth-highest harvest on record.
This initial forecast harvest and increase reflects takes into account much improved production potential in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia over last year.
But it will not be plain sailing for all. As some growers in marginal regions did not plant due to early dry conditions and were especially nervous following their dismal result last year.
For Queensland and northern and central New South Wales growers conditions have been mostly favourable. Expedited by above-average summer and timely autumn rainfall that continued to improve soil moisture profiles.
These conditions have provided a close-to-ideal start to the winter cropping season in some regions that suffered losses due to dry conditions last year.
By contrast, autumn rainfall has been lower than average across major cropping regions in western Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, and soil moisture levels remained low.
These conditions tested the mettle of growers in those regions, and it meant that much of the 2024–25 winter crop across these three states was dry sown and will require every bit of the forecast timely rainfall during June to allow for crop germination and establishment.
For areas with below-average levels of stored soil moisture, dry autumn conditions are expected to have discouraged some growers from committing to their full planting intentions.
According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook, June to August 2024, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, there is a 40 to 60% chance that winter rainfall will be above average across cropping regions in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.
Meanwhile, cropping regions in Western Australia have a higher chance of receiving above-average rainfall, between 50 and 75%.
This generally favourable rainfall outlook for June to August is a godsend for a season that looked hopeless at various stages.
But for now, the predicted rainfall is expected to support the germination of dry sown crops and follow up winter crop planting towards the end of the ideal planting window.
Area planted to winter crops
Growers have retained a historically high area planted for winter season 2024–25.
With plantings rising to slightly more than 3% over last year to 23.6 million hectares, this is 6% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
Helping to achieve this increase was the area planted to winter crops in Queensland and New South Wales to levels that are likely to more than offset any slight falls in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
The initial estimate for the area planted to wheat is a rise of 3% to 12.7 million/ha in 2024–25.
While the area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 3% to 4.3 million/ha in 2024–25.
These initial estimate increases mostly reflect the enthusiasm shown by growers in Queensland and New South Wales.
The longer planting window for cereals is also expected to result in some late plantings following upcoming forecast rainfall events, so there is a chance of the initial figures being adjusted upwards.
With dry conditions in some major cropping regions, the area planted to canola took a dive by 9% to 3.2 million hectares in 2024–25.
The reduction in area reflects a less favourable start to the season in some regions. Lower relative expected returns have also seen some substitution towards other crops, including wheat, barley and pulses.
Pulses have been a big beneficially of grower ingenuity with the area planted to winter varietiesincreased by 17% to 2.5 million hectares in 2024–25, driven by more chickpea and lentil plantings.
The estimated area planted for chickpeasis forecast to increase by around 80% to 730 thousand/ha in 2024–25. This is 24% above the 10-year average to 2023–24, reflecting high expected margins and a favourable start to the cropping season in Queensland and New South Wales.
While the area planted to lentils is forecast to increase further in 2024–25 to a record 885 thousand/ha, reflecting high lentil prices.
Winter crop production
Growers are gearing up for general farm improvements and increasing on-farm storage as above-average winter crop production will top up their bank accounts nicely.
Most growing regions are showing an increased likelihood of receiving average to above-average winter rainfall. With yields forecast to be particularly solid in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.
Those eastern states will more than offset average to below-average yields in South Australia and Western Australia, where growers will still be above the 10-year average.
Taken as a whole across the country, wheat production is forecast to increase by 12% to 29.1 million tonnes in 2024–25, 10% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
Barley production is forecast to increase by 7% to 11.5 million tonnes in 2024–25, 2% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
Canola production is forecast to fall by 5% to 5.4 million tonnes in 2024–25, 21% above the 10- year average to 2023–24.
Lentil production is forecast to remain steady in 2024–25, at 1.6 million tonnes. This is more than double the 10-year average to 2023–24, with the expansion in area planted to lentils expected to be offset by lower expected yields.
Chickpea production is forecast to increase by 133% to 1.1 million tonnes in 2024–25, 46% above the 10-year average to 2023–24.
From the 2024-25 winter season production alone, not including carryover stocks from previous seasons, local growers are expected to export 19.8 million tonnes of wheat, 3.9 million tonnes of barley and 3.6 million tonnes of canola.
