Cattle prices at near record prices right up until late July may see further short-term easing before China comes back on track
The triggering of a range of trade restrictions – primarily from China – is beginning to reshape beef flows around the world, according to a just-released report.
The specialist agribusiness bank, Rabobank, outlines the changes in the beef market flow, with the impact most visible here, after China’s “safeguard quota” for Aussie beef imports was reached in mid-June.
This quota target saw our beef exports to China fall 71% month-over-month from May to June 2026, with July volumes remaining similarly low, according to its Q3 Global Beef Quarterly report.
However, much of the Aussie beef product has been redirected to alternative destinations, the report confirmed, with Japan, South Korea, the United States and the Middle East all recording significant increases in Aussie beef imports through June and July 2026.
What local beef producers can expect
Even with the China turn-off, beef production volumes are expected to remain strong, according to the just-released report.
“Australia’s national weekly slaughter volumes continue to track around 150,000 to 160,000 head per week, which is in line with the first half of this year,” report author Angus Gidley-Baird confirmed. “And year-to-date total weekly slaughter volumes are up 6% on the same time last year.
“RaboResearch believes these ongoing elevated local slaughter and sale numbers are a result of a larger cattle inventory and productive cattle herd. Cattle saleyard numbers continue to be some of the highest levels in the past 10 years, 33% higher than the five-year average.”
In addition, cattle prices remain strong but eased in late July following a “rain-fuelled rise through May and June”, the report outlined.
“Although El Niño has been declared, many cattle-producing areas received favourable rainfall through May and June with further falls in August. This saw cattle prices rise in June and July to the highest point for the year as producers took advantage of the better prospects for feed production,” Angus Gidley-Baird added.
“Towards the end of July, though, prices started declining as the combination of the China quota and ongoing caution around seasonal conditions took the heat out of the market.”
RaboResearch believes prices may ease further in the coming months as some grain-fed cattle and beef volumes build in the system given reduced export numbers.
“But late in Q3 and into Q4, pending seasonal conditions, the annual January 1 resetting of the China quota is expected to see some support return to the market,” Angus Gidley-Baird concluded.
Global market shift
Brazil is also expected to hit its Chinese beef import quota limits in the coming month, with anticipation of reduced access to China already pressuring Brazilian cattle prices lower.
China has its finger in many pies, with imports from New Zealand rising 66% year-over-year for the first six months of 2026, while volumes from Canada and Bolivia increased 104% and 62% respectively year-over-year for the same period, the report highlighted.
Attention is now shifting to September, when a proposed EU suspension of Brazilian beef (and other meat) imports – due to concerns Brazil cannot demonstrate compliance with EU antimicrobial use – could “trigger another reshuffling of global trade.
If this suspension is implemented, roughly 10,000 metric tonnes per month of Brazilian beef would need to find alternative markets, increasing competitive pressure across key importing regions.
Global prices
The report notes global prices had pulled back “modestly” in July from the record levels reached earlier in the year. Prices in Australia, Canada and the US declined between two and six per cent on June levels.
Improved cattle availability, growing consumer resistance to higher beef prices and trade disruptions have all contributed to weaker market sentiment.
And further “price consolidation” is possible over the next several months, as markets adjust to changing supply and demand dynamics.
Global production
The report indicates that RaboResearch’s forecast for lower global beef production “remains firmly intact.”
“While Q2 data is not yet complete, production is expected to decline across key markets, including Europe, the US, Brazil and China,” Angus Gidley-Baird confirmed.
The production downturn is expected to continue over the next 12 months, he added, with Brazil projected to post the largest volume decline.
“Overall, global beef production is forecast to fall two per cent year-over-year in the calendar year to December 2026, further tightening supplies and supporting market fundamentals,” Angus Gidley-Baird suggested.
