Agricultural production alone is expected to total $99.5 billion – the highest on record – and with fisheries and forestry added will reach $106.4 billion
Record Farmgate value of $99.5 billion is being driven by a livestock market at very strong price levels and expected to continue in that vein as available stock numbers decline, along with the revival of the winter harvest, injecting steady national crop value into the mix.
And this all looks set to continue as livestock prices strengthen on the back of firm global and domestic restock demand, lifting the value of livestock and livestock product output even as turnoff of sheep, lambs and cattle moderates.
And with ideal late-season growing conditions, the national winter crop outlook is robust, with production expectations increased and on track to reach 66.3 million tonnes, the second-biggest winter harvest on record.
The somewhat later than usual harvest is well underway across all states, with significantly above-average yields reported in northern New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
While, as expected, it’s a slightly dourer setting for growers in marginal parts of the upper south-east of the country, where a dry spring adversely impacted yields in well-known season-by-season tested growing regions.
It is expected that exporters will benefit from the excess of domestic market requirements with a Farm export value projected to reach $78.9 billion. While the combined agriculture, fisheries and forestry export value is forecast to rise to $83.9 billion in 2025-26, setting another record.
All of this is leading to an expected increase in farm profitability, with average broadacre farm cash income forecast to reach $227,000 per farm in 2025-26.
This is one of the strongest positions farmers have been in for several years and spending on infrastructure is expected to prevail when it comes to farmgate income spending leading into 2026.
Money trail lights up
This is where the bulk of the Farmgate income of $99.5 billion will come from in season 2025-26.
The total value of crop production is expected to increase marginally to $53.4 billion, while the gross value of livestock and livestock product production is expected to increase by 14% to $46.1 billion.
As the 2025-26 harvest has progressed, there has not been an urgent need to increase estimates as seasonal conditions have helped deliver a well-above-average 2025 winter crop harvest, but an additional $4.8 billion has been added to reflect an increase in livestock and livestock products due to strong rises in saleyard prices.
Livestock and livestock product
In large part, livestock and livestock product gross values reflect strong upwards revisions to cattle and sheep prices as processor and domestic restocking demand have seen saleyard prices reach record highs in recent data. Record prices are expected to continue driving product values higher
When compared to last year, Livestock and livestock product gross values are forecast to rise by $5.5 billion in 2025-26 to $46.1 billion, driven by higher livestock and livestock product prices (18% higher).
Prices have been buoyed by sustained strong global red meat demand and domestic restocking activity, reflecting improved seasonal. By contrast livestock and livestock product production volumes are expected to fall by 4%, as elevated turn-off in recent years has reduced livestock available for slaughter.
The rise in livestock and livestock product values reflects an increase for cattle and calves at $3.2 billion higher, mainly driven by price, whereas by contrast, beef production volumes are expected to fall slightly.
Lamb and sheep are $1.1 billion higher, as prices more than offset lower production volumes for both lamb and mutton.
Milk is also up $0.5 billion, and wool is up $0.3 billion, driven by higher prices for both commodities, with production volumes expected to fall.
While pigs, poultry and eggs lumped together are up $0.2 billion, this time driven by rising production volumes to meet domestic demand.
Crop harvest is solid
Crop production value is expected to almost mirror last year, up just $0.1 billion to reach a value of $53.4 billion in 2025-26, the second highest result on record in nominal terms, fourth-highest in real terms.
Relatively favourable seasonal conditions in winter and spring across many cropping regions have supported strong production volumes, with a strong finish to the winter harvest, especially in Western Australia and northern New South Wales.
By contrast, global crop prices are forecast to decline in 2025-26 as record global production and stocks, especially for grains, support exportable supply.
Throughout the growing season, it became evident in the marketplace there would be income changes in individual crop production values, we take a look at the outcome for season 2025-26 as compared to last year.
Canola production values are expected to rise by $0.9 billion, driven by increasing production volumes and higher prices as growing world demand is expected to outpace greater global supply.
Horticulture continues its strong rise with production values expected to rise by $0.6 billion, driven by higher production and prices. Price rises for export-focused horticulture commodities are expected to outweigh price falls for domestically focused products.
Coarse grains production values are expected to increase by up to $0.5 billion, as higher production – driven by an expected record barley harvest – outweighs falling global prices.
By contrast, cotton is coming in $0.8 billion lower, along with wine grape at $0.1 billion lower, with production values expected to fall, driven by both lower production volumes and prices.
Wheat value is tipped at $0.5 billion lower, along with sugarcane down $0.3 billion. Value falls reflect easing international prices, with production volumes expected to rise slightly.
Agricultural export value at record high
The value of agricultural exports is expected to reach a record high in nominal terms (second highest in real terms), rising by $3.1 billion to $78.9 billion in 2025-26.
The expected rise is being driven by higher livestock and livestock product export values at $2.7 billion higher. While crop export values are also expected to rise slightly to $0.4 billion higher.
As with the forecast rise in agricultural production values, the expected 4% rise in agricultural export values in 2025-26 is being achieved by higher prices.
Livestock and livestock product export prices are expected to rise by 13%, reflecting strong global demand for beef and sheep.
But average export prices for beef and sheep meat are forecast to increase by less than domestic livestock prices in 2025-26 as restock momentum adds to domestic saleyard demand, alongside robust processor demand.
Livestock and livestock product export volumes are forecast to fall by 5% in line with expected lower livestock slaughter. This follows from red meat export volumes growing steadily over the last three years, driven by rising production and strong demand from the United States, China, Japan and emerging markets in the Middle East.
Crop export volumes are forecast to rise by 6% in 2025-26, reflecting increased production and high carryover wheat stocks.
By contrast, crop export prices are expected to be down by 5%, driven by record global production and rising global stocks across many major crop commodities.
The forecast value of agricultural exports for 2025-26 is now estimated at $4.3 billion higher than early season predictions, largely reflecting upwards revisions to livestock product export prices and consistent with revisions to total farm production values.
Input prices to remain elevated
Not much reprieve for farmers as it is in the general economy with input prices expected to rise by 5.0% in 2025-26 driven by rising prices for livestock, fodder, fertiliser and labour.
By comparison, fuel prices are expected to moderate, reflecting rising global production, dampening the overall increase in prices paid. Prices received for agricultural commodities are expected to rise by 6.4% in 2025-26.
With strong increases in livestock prices expected to outweigh slight falls in prices received for grains and industrial crops.
