Liberals wiped out while their Nationals coalition partner barely hold their ground in a Federal election that celebrates the rise of people first politics
The final week of the May 2002 Federal election had the Coalition faithfuls looking to the heavens, for a second miracle, and once again defy the polls they scoffed at throughout the election lead-up.
And while several polls saw a lift in the Morrison vote in the dying stages of the campaign, it was a false prophet that began that final run to the goal line hoping to snatch victory in the 2022 Federal election.
First and foremost was a record deficit of $1.1 trillion run up by the Morrison/Frydenberg Prime minister/treasurer combination that has created a dire situation with no credible plan for this money now owed by the Australian population to be paid back any time soon.
It is conservatively estimated that we will face 15 to 20 years of deficits and the need to divert funding from critical projects to start repaying the loan down to a more manageable level.
For a political party that claimed superior financial management and often campaigned on their ability to deliver a budget surplus, this high debt situation weakened the Coalitions position coming into the 2022 election.
There were simply too many issues that cropped up during the term, from the worst public health crisis in living history to the ongoing abuse of women, including within the sanction of our very own parliamentary walls.
The women’s block within the Coalition had already decided they needed a stronger voice on a climate change and gender equity issues, and from this movement grew a cluster of wealthy inner-city wives ready to stand as high-profile independent candidates against the government they previously supported.
And in the most bizarre twist of all, in 2019 Scott Morrison made a promise to establish an independent anti-corruption commission. And while the proposed law was drawn up by the then Attorney General Christian Porter it failed to gain the support of the house, being cited as too weak in its power to prosecute.
And before the bill could be redrafted and presented again for a vote, Attorney General Christian Porter made a dramatic retirement from politics following an historic rape allegation that he strenuously denied, and with the added burden of explaining a $1 million anonymous donation from supporters to fund any pending legal action.
Morrison was a leader that lost the admiration of many Liberal supporters and seemingly had to take up the fight single-handily to win the 2022 election, as he did in 2019, when many had deserted the party.
Playing the end game
The final centre bounce was about to take place with 30 seconds to the siren, and Morrison, who was finishing the game with all the marketing jargon and promises he could muster, grabbed the ball.
Now holding the prized leather, the man that had reinvented himself several times throughout the campaign began his bulldozer run to the goal line promising to change his demeanour if voters gave him another term in office.
For a moment it actually seemed to work, as polling improved for the coalition in the final week of the campaign, but as Morrison clutched the ball and was making his final run with the goal posts looming quickly, there appeared to be something slowing him down.
Morrison glanced back momentarily to see Barnaby Joyce with a firm hold on his jumper, and while Morrison continued his run, the weight of Barnaby Joyce was compounded by the mass of leaflets stuffed in his pockets about the ridiculous notion of climate change by 2030.
To Morrison’s credit he never appeared to tire in that final run, but he was alone with no-one to pass the ball to, he was a runaway within a party that simply could not keep up with voter sentiment, Morrison had to kick the goal by himself, as he did in 2019 or all was lost.
As Morrison lined up the goal posts for a final miracle, a wall of players in teal jumpers he had dismissed earlier as an aberration suddenly appeared ahead to divert his attention – long enough for a lightweight back pocket player called Albanese, more used to looking after tired out of touch followers, snatch the chance from Morrison.
Albanese who appeared out of form or injured throughout the Federal election battle had been stretchered into the game by a group of nurses wearing green jumpers, and it was only due to their voting preferences the Labor party won a majority of seats. This support meant Albanese was able to avoid failure himself from a hung parliament, and the need to do it all again.
The almost final result
As history will record, a seriously low Labor primary vote of around 32%, but with green preferences added was enough for Anthony Albanese to be declared the 31st Prime Minister of Australia on the night, with a possible majority of 77 seats once everything is tallied.
Albanese now has the ball in his possession, and with a likely majority in the house of representatives, and likely voting power majority with the Greens in the Senate, most business put up by the Labor party will become law.
But there is little chance of Albanese getting peace of mind during his term.
The Coalition women’s block of wealthy wives has possibly secured around six seats and they believe their role in parliament has the full support of the general public, even more so than Labor when you consider the diminished support for the party winner.
This band of Teal independents believed they needed to save Coalition middle ground voters and saw a lifeline to gain much needed support from the political action group Climate 200.
Set up by clean energy investor Simon Holmes à Court who is the son of Australia’s first billionaire Robert Holmes à Court (dec), he was prepared to fund the campaigns of candidates who aligned with his organisation’s values.
The Coalition women’s block had exactly what they needed to become a force for the public with two specific policies left begging for action: the formation of a federal integrity commission and the real chance to tackle climate change, all from within the walls of parliament.
Of the 22 independents backed by Climate 200, 19 were women and of the three men it included high-profile sitting Independent MP for Clark Tas, Andrew Wilkie.
Six Teal candidates expected to win a seat for the first time include Sophie Scamps (Mackellar), Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Dr Monique Ryan (Kooyong) who is expected to unseat former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Kate Chaney (Curtin), Kylea Tink (North Sydney), Zoe Daniel (Goldstein)
With three current seats retained by climate-focused independents include Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Helen Haines (Indi) and Zali Steggall (Warringah).
These nine independents will be pushing for change that is not on the roster of the Labor party and while their combined vote added to the Coalition will not be enough to defeat or pass legislation, they will give Albanese a giant headache throughout his term.
Government by the numbers
Early predictions for the likely tenure of the House of Representatives from the 2022 federal election results follow:
Labor could win 77 seats – Increasing from the 68 seats they won in 2019 and need 76 to govern without relying on the Greens or independents for supply and voting for the government’s budget legislation.
LNP expected to win 52 seats – Dropping from 77 seats they won in 2019 this result includes the loss of 25 seats and the career end for several high-profile long-term MPs.
Greens are on track to win up to four seats – Increasing from the one seat they won in 2019 the Greens are expected to make up any shortfall if required by the Labor party to pass bills, and guarantee supply.
Independents could win 12 seats – Increasing from the 3 seats they won in 2019 the three sitting independents retain their seats and are joined by up to six Teal independents that won seats for the first time.
Of the 151 seats that make up the House of Representatives, the balance of 6 seats is simply too early to call.
Final call for Federal election 2022
Seats confirmed for the House of Representatives 2022 Federal Election follow:
Labour form Government with a majority of 77 seats 8 seats more than 2019
LNP Coalition scored 58 seats 18 seats fewer than the 2019 election
Greens finished with 4 seats 83 seats more than 2019
Independent candidates finish with 12 seats 9 seats more than 2019 with six Teal independents in a block of sorts due to same financial backer, and winning seats for the first time.
This list confirms the 151 seats that make up the House of Representatives.
