Growers in proven cropping ground have taken full advantage of timely rainfall to improve the harvest forecast for the 2026-27 season
The advanced-season forecast of the winter crop progression for 2026-27 comes as positive news for growers in most regions, with some of the timeliest rainfall in recent memory that particularly favoured farm operations in the southern cropping zone.
However, it was a different story for growers planting crops above the imaginary marginal growing country line that only thrive in seasons with above-average rainfall conditions.
When all regions across the country are tallied, the forecast for the winter crop harvest is close to 61 million tonnes, just a slight fall of 12% when compared to last year, and if achieved, will sit at the fourth largest winter crop on record.
This result is much better than many expected, considering conditions at planting time were heavily disrupted by the US/Israel attack on Iran that complicated both fertiliser and oil supply levels and prices.
This created a dilemma for many growers, with a resultant cutback on overall plantings to 24.1 million hectares, a reduction in ground estimated at 1.4 million hectares. The second lowest planting level in the past seven seasons.
There was no hesitation from growers in South Australia; they saw the opportunity to get into the game in a big way and planted down their third biggest area on record at 4.11 million hectares. The highest since the 2007-08 season.
Excellent growing conditions are expected to realise the second biggest harvest on record for SA growers at 11.29 million tonnes.
There was also an excellent start to the season in Western Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, with most crops sown down within an ideal planting window into above-average soil moisture.
This was followed by above-average May-July rainfall in South Australia and Victoria, along with mild temperatures that resulted in early emergence and establishment of crops.
These ideal growing conditions resulted in the maturity of most crops up to 3 to 4 weeks early, prompting growers to expect well above average yield potential.
And while planting conditions were largely favourable in Western Australia and southern and central New South Wales, the below-average July rainfall in Western Australia in particular has placed crops under some moisture stress.
Most growers in these regions have received just enough rainfall to maintain growth. Limited stored subsoil moisture means that further rainfall during September will be crucial for current yield estimates to be realised.
By contrast to regions that received adequate rainfall, conditions in northern New South Wales and most of Queensland have prompted a significant decline in the area planted and expectations of below-average yields.
It is a blow for growers in these regions as the season looked promising with above-average rainfall in May, but it wasn’t enough to offset the moisture deficit caused by the limited follow-up rain.
Fuel fertiliser and the weather
Despite significant uncertainty around the price and availability of diesel and fertiliser at the start of the season, growers that were able to reach their full planting quota are looking forward to the prospect of high production yields. With the chance to offset some of the higher input costs they incurred.
Growers in some regions opted to prioritise fertiliser application on their canola at the expense of cereals but this is not expected to have a significant impact on total production volume now being driven by seasonal conditions.
According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook for September to November, there is a 25 to 55% chance of exceeding median rainfall across cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales, with the lowest probabilities evident in southern New South Wales and eastern Queensland.
Victoria has a 20 to 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall, while South Australia has a 20 to 55% chance. In Western Australia, southwest cropping regions have a 25 to 40% chance of exceeding median rainfall, while southeast and northern cropping regions have an increased chance of exceeding median rainfall, between 45 and 75%.
Winter crop production is currently being revised up from early forecasts as better-than-expected conditions are at play in most southern cropping regions.
A quick reference summary of current forecasts is outlined here;
- Wheat production is expected to show the biggest fall, with current forecasts down by 17% to 29.9 million tonnes in 2026-27, largely reflecting an 11% decrease in the area planted. But still be 3% above the 10-year average to 2025-26.
- Barley production is forecast to hold its line with a minor fall of 3% to 16.4 million tonnes in 2026-27. A healthy 30% ranking above the 10-year average to 2025-26. Helped along by the area planted to barley, estimated to be up 6% year-on-year.
- Canola production was a main focus for growers but is forecast to decrease slightly by 5% to 7.3 million tonnes in 2026-27. This predicted fall is despite a 2% increase in the area sown, but largely reflecting lower yields expected out of Western Australia. This result would still be 37% above the 10- year average to 2025-26.
- Lentil production is a standout, with a forecast to increase by 5% to a second consecutive record of 2.3 million tonnes in 2026-27. This result would be more than double the 10-year average to 2025-26. Reflecting the continued expansion in area planted and excellent conditions in major growing regions of South Australia and Victoria.
- In contrast, Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 52% to just over 1 million tonnes in 2026-27, with significant cuts to area planted and expected lower yields in major growing regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland.
Crop forecasts by state
Western Australia
Growers in WA didn’t get everything their own way for winter season 2026-27 and will come off their all-time record result of 27.2 million tonnes last year to a forecast 22.8 million tonnes in 2026-27.
But overall, this is still a strong showing, with crop production in Western Australia still 18% above the 10-year average
The forecast year-on-year decrease in production is largely attributable to lower yields, due to lower rainfall, particularly in the Albany and southern Kwinana regions.
This subdued forecast is a result of a drier rainfall outlook for September across Western Australia that is expected to impact current yield potential with an easing to marginally below average.
Coming off the record 2025-26 season, growers were full of confidence as good late summer rainfall supported their decision to plant early, as soil-moisture profiles were well-developed especially in the Geraldton and Esperance regions.
Despite a dry May, above-average rainfall in June across all growing regions further supported crop establishment and growth. Sufficient rainfall in the Esperance and Geraldton regions supported crops in favourable seasonal conditions.
While drier conditions experienced in Albany and southern Kwinana regions are expected to lower yield prospects, growers here in particular are in need of additional rainfall to further support crop development and growth.
Early planting of canola has supported crop development, with the only risk to yield potential being from any frost events that may materialise.
According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook, September to November 2026, there is an increased possibility of above-average rainfall at 50 to 80% for northern and south-eastern cropping regions, with lower chances of exceeding median rainfall totals in the south-west, rated at 25 to 40%.
Growers may have to hold their breath, as above-average rainfall is less likely in September, and daytime temperatures are expected to be average to above average in most cropping regions during September and October.
Winter crop yields are forecast to fall by 16% in WA for the 2026-27 season but remain 11% above the 10-year average to 2025-26, reflecting less favourable seasonal conditions experienced in northern and southern cropping regions compared to the previous year and a close-to-average rainfall outlook.
However, current yield expectations in the Albany and southern Kwinana regions are highly reliant on timely in-crop rainfall to be realised.
Area planted to winter crops in Western Australia in 2026-27 is estimated to have increased marginally from 2025-26 to just over 9.2 million hectares, 7% above the 10-year average to 2025-26.
This largely reflects sheep-grazing area changing to cropping as sheep farmers exit the industry and enter cropping, being partially offset by some marginal cropping areas being left fallow for the 2026-27 cropping season.
The advanced-season breakdown of expectations from crop varieties in WA places wheat production down 25.4% to 10.00 million tonnes, barley production up 9.3% to 6.8 million tonnes, and canola down 5.9% to 4.0 million tonnes, while early estimates to hold up to last year’s levels have been revised to a 6.5% drop to 0.86 million tonnes.
New South Wales
With one of the strongest El Niño events active during the 2026-27 winter cropping season, it hasn’t until now been a major factor for many southern region growers, except perhaps for NSW where the blame can be laid bare as dry conditions have taken a toll.
And as a result, winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by 30% to 13.1 million tonnes in 2026-27, a dismal 3% below the 10-year average to 2025-26.
A dry start to the winter cropping season in northern New South Wales, combined with low winter rainfall, has resulted in a reduction in area planted to winter crops and low yields in the north of the state heading into spring.
Conditions in parts of central and southern New South Wales have been more favourable, with sufficient soil moisture around planting and adequate rainfall throughout winter supporting higher yields.
Winter crop yields are currently forecast to average 2.3 tonnes/hectare in 2026-27, a bare 6% above the 10-year average to 2025-26.
This reflects dry conditions in the north of the state being partially offset by favourable growing conditions in parts of central and southern New South Wales.
Currently, winter crops in southern New South Wales are more advanced than normal as mild temperatures throughout June and July supported crop growth.
This could provide a downside risk to yields if severe frost events were to occur in southern growing regions throughout late winter and early spring.
The September to November climate outlook for southern cropping regions in New South Wales indicates a strong tendency towards below-average rainfall. With yield prospects reliant on adequate and timely rainfall to realise current yield predictions.
In contrast, across much of northern New South Wales, well below average soil moisture levels leading into spring, combined with an average to below average spring rainfall outlook, are expected to significantly reduce yield prospects.
The area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is estimated to have fallen by 19% in 2026-27 to 5.7 million hectares, 2% below the 10-year average to 2025-26.
The area planted to wheat is estimated to be down 17% year-on-year. Barley is estimated to have fallen by 5% year-on-year to 1 million hectares, with growers prioritising barley plantings over wheat due to concerns about fertiliser availability. While the area planted to canola is estimated to be down 25.3%.
Industry expectations for crop varieties in NSW come with some hefty declines, including wheat production down 31.1% to 7.7 million tonnes, barley production down 19.4% to 2.9 million tonnes, canola down 25.0% to 1.2 million tonnes, while the chickpeas boom is over, down 61.9% to a lightweight portion of just 0.45 million tonnes.
South Australia
Still fresh in the memory of bank managers in SA is the dismal failure of the 2024-25 winter crop at a bare 5.3 million tonnes, and it was with trepidation they bankrolled the 2025-26 planting for growers to be rewarded with a 9.0 million tonnes haul.
That good fortune continues for SA growers as they throw off concerns of dry conditions for a harvest forecast to reach 11.3 million tonnes in 2026-27 from one of the best growing seasons to date. The second highest production year for SA growers since the record 12.6 million tonnes in season 2022-23.
This result was secured by average to above-average rainfall that fell across many parts of South Australia’s cropping regions in June and July that worked to maintain strong upper- and lower-layer soil moisture following the well above average February to May rainfall.
Crops were sown into early season soil moisture, and the follow-up rainfall alongside mild winter temperatures has advanced crops up to 4 weeks ahead of where they would normally be at this stage in the season.
However, there is a precursor in play as the climate outlook from September to November 2026 indicates a 45 to 70% chance of below-average rainfall across much of South Australia.
Chances of exceeding median rainfall are the lowest in the Southeast and the lower Yorke and Eyre Peninsula, whereas the upper Eyre Peninsula, the Mallee and the Upper North have a higher chance of seeing close to median rainfall.
In spring, there is also an 80% chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature across the state. Despite this dry and hot outlook, the exceptional condition and advanced development of most crops mean that they will be more resilient to heat stress later in the season.
Growers will also be on the lookout for the threat of late frosts, but above-average soil moisture is expected to limit additional downside risk to yield potential.
Winter crop yields are forecast to increase by 20% to 2.7 tonnes/hectare in 2026-27, with the average state yield second highest on record and 29% above the 10-year average to 2025-26.
Wheat, barley and canola yields are all forecast to rise significantly, reaching 2.9, 3.3 and 2.3 tonnes/hectare respectively, and if achieved, all will be the second highest achieved following the record yields set in season 2022-23.
The area planted to winter crops in SA is estimated to have increased by 4% to 4.1 million/ha, the third largest area on record and 9% above the 10-year average to 2025-26.
Overall, the area planted has increased across all major crops, reflecting the very favourable start to the season. Wheat area is estimated to have increased by 3% to 2.05 million/ha and barley is estimated to have increased by 5% to 880 thousand hectares.
Lentil area is estimated to have risen by 3% to 600 thousand hectares, and canola area is estimated to have increased by 12% to 280 thousand hectares. Due to the significant moisture availability and strong gross margins at sowing, canola has experienced the largest area gains, particularly on the Eyre Peninsula.
The advanced-season forecast for crop harvest production in SA is on an upward trajectory and places wheat production up by 26.6% to 6.0 million tonnes, barley production up by 35.1% to 2.9 million tonnes, with lentils stepping up by 7.8% to 1.2 million tonnes. While canola is also forecast up by 14.5% to 0.630 million tonnes.
Victoria
Victorian growers look set to establish a record crop production level from winter season 2026-27 with a forecast harvest of 11.32 million tonnes, up 12% from the solid result last year, and beating the previous 11.29 million tonnes record set in season 2022-23.
Almost perfect, up until now, seasonal conditions have boosted production prospects into this record level, with winter crop production now expected to be 28% above the 10-year average of 8.9 million tonnes.
Despite a relatively dry April, soil moisture availability was above average in Victoria following well above average rainfall in February and March.
Crops were sown during an ideal planting window into moisture and then received average to above average May to August rainfall across most cropping regions.
Combined with mild winter temperatures, crop establishment and growth are well advanced with crops around 3 to 4 weeks ahead of where they would normally be at this stage in the season.
Despite the decreased chances of receiving above-average rainfall during spring, crops are well positioned to withstand forecast below-average rainfall until harvest and in some cases would benefit from a dry spell.
There is an increased risk that a significant frost event could impact yields due to how advanced crops are, but above average soil moisture availability should mitigate some of that risk.
According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook for September to November 2026, rainfall is not likely to exceed median levels across most cropping regions in Victoria.
Below-average forecast rainfall is not likely to impact crops significantly due to current soil moisture reserves and the advanced stage that crops are in heading into spring.
The average wheat yield is forecast to increase by 18% to 3.4 tonnes/ha, 20% above the 10-year average, reflecting early planting into moisture and ideal growing conditions to date.
The average barley yield is forecast to be similar to last year’s strong result of 3.6 tonnes/ha, 25% above the 10-year average. While the average canola yield is forecast to increase by 6% to 2.45 tonnes/ha.
Area planted to winter crops in Victoria in 2026-27 is estimated to have increased by 3% to 3.8 million/ha, the highest area on record. This reflects the ideal start to the season across all cropping regions and the continued expansion of cropping area into areas previously grazed by livestock.
Record production results are expected across most varieties, with wheat production up 15.2% to 4.89 million tonnes, barley production up by 9.7% to 3.40 million tonnes, canola up by 13.7% to 1.42 million tonnes, while lentils are holding the line and up by 0.8% to 0.933 million tonnes.
Queensland
Growers in Queensland may well blame the current El Niño event for the dry conditions that have led to a disappointing start to the planting season, with the area planted to winter crops in Queensland in 2026-27 down by 24% to 1.2 million hectares, 4% below the 10-year average to 2025-26.
As a result, winter crop production in Queensland is forecast to fall by 44% to 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting the year-on-year fall in area planted and lower expected yields for most winter crops. A result expected to be 11% below the 10-year-average to 2025-26.
Growers have nowhere to turn, with limited stored soil moisture levels at planting compounded by below-average to average rainfall during the growing season to date.
The area planted to wheat is down 26%. Barley area is down by 11%, reflecting grower preference over wheat in the drier conditions and concerns about fertiliser availability and pricing during planting. The area planted to chickpeas is down by 25%, reflecting dry conditions across many planting regions in central and southern Queensland.
Winter crop yields are forecast to fall by 26% to around 1.8 tonnes/ha compared to last year but still be just about in line with the 10-year average to 2025-26.
The climate outlook indicates a 30 to 55% chance of exceeding median rainfall across most of Queensland between September and November 2026. This follows the average to below average rainfall and soil moisture levels for most of Queensland during the growing season.
Production expectations are not high compared to last year, with wheat forecast down 47.6% to 1.21 million tonnes and barley down 31.1% to 0.355 million tonnes. While chickpeas are expected to be down 41.5% to 0.570 million tonnes.
See how the season has progressed, from a shaky start, with plantings down an estimated 1.4 million hectares, at this link.
